Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, any government or sovereign-wealth-fund publicly announces a single AI-infrastructure investment commitment of $10 billion USD or more.

"Sovereign-AI deal" includes: government-funded AI compute capacity, sovereign-cloud investments, government-AI-procurement frameworks with stated budgets, sovereign-wealth-fund equity investments in AI infrastructure companies, government data-center build commitments. The deal must be ≥$10B in stated commitment value.

Source of truth: government press releases, sovereign-wealth-fund public communications, ministerial-level announcements, publicly reported via primary sources (gov.* domains) or major news outlets citing primary sources.

A single line-item in a national budget that allocates ≥$10B to AI counts. A multi-year program where the announced commitment ≥$10B counts. Vague "we will invest billions" rhetoric does NOT count — must be a specific dollar figure.

Resolution date: 2026-12-31.

About this market. This market is part of SCB/SCO Reference Run #001 — AI Compute (30-day longitudinal demonstration) under Leadership Under Uncertainty. It is a research-demonstration corpus, not a commercial product.

Open-Sources-Only Commitment. This market resolves only against publicly accessible sources (SEC filings, government data, public benchmark publications, public corporate communications). Subscription-gated analyst content is not used in resolution.

Creator-is-not-trader. The creator of this market does not place trades on it. Probabilities reflect community trading.

Pre-registration. Question wording, resolution criteria, and close date were locked before any market data was observed and cryptographically anchored on day 0 of the run via the SCB/SCO daily Merkle seal. See protocol.