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MANIFOLD
Which world leaders will Trump meet at the APEC summit in Shenzhen (Nov 18-19, 2026)?
3
Ṁ250Ṁ29
Nov 20
80%
Xi Jinping (China)
54%
Vladimir Putin (Russia)
54%
Japan's prime minister
50%
South Korea's president
50%
Canada's prime minister
50%
Australia's prime minister
50%
Indonesia's president
50%
Mexico's president
50%
Vietnam's leader
50%
New Zealand's prime minister

President Trump is scheduled to travel to Shenzhen, China for the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting on November 18-19, 2026. Which leaders will he hold a meeting with while he is in China?

Each answer resolves independently (YES or NO).

An answer resolves YES if, between November 15 and November 21, 2026 (Beijing time), Trump holds an in-person meeting in China with that country's leader, and that meeting is described as a bilateral meeting, a meeting, or a pull-aside by at least one of these: the White House (whitehouse.gov readouts, briefings or the published schedule), Reuters, or AP.

  • "Leader" means the head of government or head of state who leads that country's APEC delegation (the office counts, not the person — if the office-holder changes before the summit, the new one counts).

  • Does NOT count: handshakes, greetings or photos at group sessions, the family photo, gala dinners, or short exchanges that the sources above do not call a meeting. Phone and video calls do not count.

  • A three-way or larger meeting counts for every leader in it, as long as the sources describe it as a meeting Trump took part in (not the plenary session).

  • If Trump does not travel to China in that window, every answer resolves NO.

Resolution will happen shortly after close, with links to the reports used. I may trade on this market only within the limits I set for my own markets.

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My guesses: Xi ~85% (he's hosting and a meeting is reportedly being planned), Japan ~55%, South Korea ~45%, Putin ~20%, most others 20-25%, New Zealand ~10% (their election is Nov 7). Biggest risk is the trip being cut short after the midterms. Trip report: https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/?p=649211