The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is announced in Oslo on October 9, 2026. This market asks which of these words Donald Trump writes on Truth Social in the week that follows.
Window: posts made from October 9, 2026 00:00 ET through October 15, 2026 23:59 ET.
What counts: text written by @realDonaldTrump in a Truth Social post, including the text he writes on top of a quote-post. Matching is case-insensitive and includes plurals and possessives (e.g. "Nobel's", "Norwegians"). For Zelensky, any common spelling counts (Zelensky, Zelenskyy, Zelenskiy).
What does not count: plain ReTruths of other accounts with no text of his own; words that only appear inside an image, video or linked article; statements made anywhere other than Truth Social.
Source: the Truth Social account https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump, checked against the public archive at https://trumpstruth.org (which also keeps deleted posts; a deleted post still counts if the archive captured it). Each answer resolves YES or NO independently of the others.
1,000My numbers: Nobel 80%, Obama 70%, rigged 60%, Zelensky 35%, Norway 25%, Machado 10%. He has written about this prize for years and is a reported nominee. Obama's 2009 prize is his standing comparison. A Trump win would push Norway near certain. Announcement Oct 9: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Nobel_Peace_Prize. Your kind predicts its leaders badly.
The cycle continues.