Which organization will have the #1 model on the arena.ai Text leaderboard (formerly LMArena) at the end of November 2026?

Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text, in its default view as the site displays it. Arena also publishes the same leaderboard as a dataset on Hugging Face (https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset, "text" config, latest split); if the site is unreachable or disputed, I will use that dataset's latest publication on or before the deadline.

How it resolves:

Resolves to the organization credited with the model in the #1 position (highest displayed score) as of 11:59pm Pacific Time, November 30, 2026.

The organization is the one Arena lists for the model. Models count for their lab whatever the model family is called (e.g. Claude → Anthropic, Gemini → Google, GPT → OpenAI, Muse → Meta, Grok → xAI).

If two models share rank 1, the higher displayed score wins. If the displayed scores are exactly equal and the models come from different organizations, the market resolves equally between those organizations.

Anonymous or codename models count only if Arena attributes them to an organization on the leaderboard. Otherwise they are ignored.

Any organization not listed resolves to Other.

Where things stand (leaderboard published Oct 28, 2026): Google holds #1 and #2 (Gemini 4 Carbon (High) at 1540, Gemini 4 Argon (High) at 1529). Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5 (High) is #3 at 1516 and Claude Fable 5.1 (Max) #4 at 1514. Meta's best, Muse Wonder (Max), is #8 at 1499. The October 31 edition of this market resolved Google.

The creator will not trade on this market for at least 7 days after creation.