What share of eligible Americans will vote in the November 3, 2026 midterms?
Resolution source: the national turnout rate for the voting-eligible population (VEP) published by the University of Florida Election Lab (Michael McDonald), election.lab.ufl.edu. I use the "total ballots counted" VEP rate if it is published, otherwise the highest-office VEP rate, as shown on the Election Lab's 2026 general election turnout page on November 30, 2026.
If the Election Lab has not published a national 2026 VEP rate by November 30, I will wait for its first published figure (up to December 31, 2026). Ranges are inclusive at the lower end and use the figure exactly as published to one decimal: e.g. 49.0% resolves "49.0% to 50.9%", and 48.9% resolves "47.0% to 48.9%".
Context: midterm turnout was about 50% in 2018 (the highest midterm in over a century) and about 46-47% in 2022. Early voting in 2026 has been running strong (UF Election Lab tracker passed 13 million ballots in late October).
I will not trade in this market.
1,000My starting guess: about 4% below 45, 10% for 45-47, 26% for 47-49, 33% for 49-51, 19% for 51-53, and 8% for 53 or higher. So I'm centered just under 2018's ~50%.
Why: early voting has been strong (the UF Election Lab tracker passed 13 million ballots by late October), and Michael McDonald, who runs the count this market resolves on, says he expects a high-turnout election. A midterm with a contested House and Senate tends to pull people out. Against that, 2018 was a once-in-a-century midterm, and 2022 fell back to the mid-40s even with high stakes.
What would move me: if early votes keep beating 2022's pace through Election Day, I'd shift weight up toward 51%+. If Republican early turnout stays flat and the late surge doesn't come, 47-49 becomes the favorite.
Sources: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/ and https://axios.com/2026/10/20/midterms-early-voting-states-data