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Here's a market I think is way too low

https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-oregon-secretary-of-state?r=Q2x1Ym1hc3RlclRyYW5zcGFyZW50

ETA: Did not intend to repost this.

It doesnt say "barred for all time" just "barred." CREW won the lawsuit, he's barred now. Trump can appeal the win but that fact doesn't make it a non-win. Agree SCOTUS would likely take up an appeal but that's still theoretical.

@ClubmasterTransparent He is not currently barred; there is a stay on the judgment. That stay has been in place since the judgment was released.

@EvanDaniel Only the enforcement is stayed. The judgment is made. He is barred. It can't be enforced right now but that's a moot point since there is also not a ballot right now.

Unrelatedly, it doesn't encourage growth of this site to have a pile-on every time a newcomer makes a market, it attracts traders, then they try to resolve it.

Staying Enforcement of a Judgment Pending Appeal - Colorado Bar Association https://www.cobar.org/Portals/COBAR/TCL/2019/May/CL_MayFeatureArticles%20AL.pdf

@ClubmasterTransparent One of the conditions is whether he’ll be allowed on the ballot. This is still up the air.

Note that the logic "CREW won the lawsuit" is kinda suspect because if you say that they won (but the win might be overturned on appeal), then you should also agree that they already lost as well - they lost in the first ruling by the district judge! https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/18/politics/takeaways-from-the-blockbuster-trump-insurrectionist-ban-ruling/index.html

And I agree with Evan, the current state of affairs does not bar Trump from being on the ballot, due to the stay.

YES resolution does not seem correct at this time.

@TeriDiPiano Can you explain the reason for you resolving YES?

There is proof on the official Colorado Supreme Court website stating the case is in a "Stay" Status

SOURCE LINK

SOURCE LINK

@SirCryptomind See above. It's the enforcement that is stayed. CREW won the case. There are other markets on what happens next.

This is a premature resolution.

@NicoDelon Lawyers very underrepresented on Manifold (insert joke or Shakespeare reference here).

@ClubmasterTransparent Overconfident people very over represented on Manifold.

/DanMan314/will-scotus-grant-cert-take-on-the

/DanMan314/will-scotus-reverse-the-colorado-su

Unlike the other market (already resolves YES) which stated "This resolves yes if the Colorado Supreme Court overturn the trial court decision and removes Trump from the ballot," this market does not rely on just the result of the Colorado Supreme Court. It isn't over until the Supreme Court declines to take this case, should Mr. Trump appeal (regardless of what legal standing he may or may not have). Then, and only then, would CREW have "won their lawsuit" and the market resolves YES.

@mint @TeriDiPiano This is most certainly going to be appealed, likely today. I don’t think this market should resolve yet

@mint I dumped my Yes because of that risk, but to me, this market should be over. Think the rules make it clear its about CREW winning the lawsuit.

@mattyb Sorry. It was my first day on manifold when I asked the question. I didn't specify. Technically Trump has been barred so I felt I should resolve immediately.

I suppose CREW winning the lawsuit is a vague phrase that could mean multiple things. In my opinion, they won the battle, but they haven't won the war yet. I'll wait to see what market creator and/or mods say. Either way, I guess I made profit in this market lol.

@TeriDiPiano illegitimi non carborundum. No way to learn to make markets without doing it. @mattyb Eeyored my first market too.

@ClubmasterTransparent @TeriDiPiano this was a really good first market! welcome to manifold, sorry that there’s so much discussion in your comments

@ClubmasterTransparent which of your markets did I “eeyore”?

@ClubmasterTransparent Thank you. I really like your turn of phrase and empathy.

@mattyb Thank you and no worries. I like a good debate.

@TeriDiPiano Technically Trump hasn't been barred yet, the order by the Colorado Supreme Court is stayed so it has never entered into effect yet - from another comment thread:

He is not currently barred; there is a stay on the judgment. That stay has been in place since the judgment was released.

@TeriDiPiano If you agree with that logic and believe that the market shouldn't have been resolved yet, just comment so and mods can undo the resolution.

@jack I believe that as a newbie I wasn't specific enough. However, the way it is worded and reality met up. I resolved based on the fact that Trump was barred. There were no caveats in this question about not resolving if it might be overturned. I will not be asking mods to undo. Sorry to all who lost mana.

@TeriDiPiano Thanks for the response but you didn't really reply to the core point, wanted to make sure that wasn't missed.

based on the fact that Trump was barred

But he hasn't been barred - the current state of affairs is, if nothing changes, he will be barred after the stay expires - which hasn't happened yet.

@jack

According to all these headlines Trump was barred. I will try to be more specific and add caveats if I ever post a question again.

@TeriDiPiano Fair enough, this is a case where the common reporting and the technical legal status were different and seems reasonable to use either