Will Iñigo Errejón spend a night in jail by the end of 2025?
Will Iñigo Errejón spend a night in jail by the end of 2025?
4
100Ṁ302026
49%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The ‘only yes is yes’ law made changes to the sentences for sexual abuse as well as what constitutes sexual abuse, which could place Iñigo in jail. However, most of the allegations took place before the law was in place.
If Iñigo Errejón spends a night in jail for reasons other than the sexual abuse allegations (such as the allegation that he kicked an old man who asked for a picture) this market still resolves YES.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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