On December 2022, Argentina’s Vice-President and former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, was sentenced to six years in prison and given a lifelong ban on holding public office after being found guilty in a $1bn fraud case related to public works (Source). However, analysts quoted by the press say it is unlikely she will go to jail any time soon, as she enjoys immunity as VP and head of the Senate (Source).

This market resolves as YES if Kirchner spends at least 2 hours in jail until the end of 2025. It resolves as NO otherwise.

• Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that house arrest will not be considered jail for the purposes of this market's resolution.