When there is confirmation from mainstream media that goods have been sold with a tariff applied that was not already in place, I'll resolve all questions still open to YES. Until then I'll be resolving NO when needed.
I will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Tariff Resolution Update:
The qualifying tariff is now explicitly the 10% baseline tariff applied to Panamanian goods.
Only when there is confirmation from mainstream media that goods from Panama have been sold with this tariff applied will the market resolve to YES.
Update 2025-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification:
Qualifying Tariff: The market now explicitly requires the 10% baseline tariff on Panamanian goods.
Accepted Evidence: Confirmation from mainstream media will trigger a YES resolution. This includes evidence from both US and Panamanian mainstream media that goods from Panama have been sold with the tariff applied.
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@spiderduckpig I intended for the tariff to be Panama-specific, but since I didn't clarify I think it's fair that the 10% baseline tariff should count.
I'll resolve YES once there's confirmation from mainstream media that goods from Panama have been sold with this tariff applied.
@TenShino I mean, I think it's unlikely there will be a news article specifically about imports from Panama to the US, would this resolve after official trade statistics with Panama are released?
@spiderduckpig Seems reasonable, it works as evidence that the tariff is in effect so I'll accept that. Confirmation from Panamanian mainstream media counts too, they'll probably cover this issue specifically (I found Panamanian articles talking about the tariff coming into effect, but nothing yet about goods being sold).