Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, between July 10, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET), President Donald J. Trump or the White House officially announces a new policy, executive action, presidential memorandum, proclamation, or legislative proposal concerning U.S. tariffs or immigration. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Definition of "New": The announcement must introduce a policy, tariff rate, target category, border enforcement directive, or visa rule that is distinct from policies officially active or announced prior to July 10, 2026. Expanding, replacing, or substantively modifying an existing program counts as a new policy; merely executing or re-stating an established schedule from a prior order does not.
Definition of "Announce": The policy must be officially communicated directly by President Trump (e.g., via his official Truth Social account, a live public address, or an official press conference) or formally issued via the White House Briefing Room or the Federal Register.
Qualifying Topics:
Tariffs: Any new import taxes, surcharges, reciprocal tariffs, or modifications to existing tariff rates.
Immigration: Any new executive rules regarding border control, mass deportations, asylum, temporary/permanent visas, or airport customs operations.
Source of Truth: Official statements from the White House, signed Executive Orders or Proclamations on FederalRegister.gov, or reporting from major reputable news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, AP News) confirming the announcement.
Background
President Donald Trump's second term has been characterized by active executive intervention on trade and border security. Following a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling that invalidated previous emergency tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the administration implemented a temporary 10% global import surcharge under separate authorities. On the immigration front, the administration has pursued aggressive enforcement, including targeted visa holds, expanded deportations, and proposed adjustments to the Department of Labor's PERM certification standards. This market monitors whether the administration will roll out additional core policy shifts or legal workarounds on these two signature platforms before the end of Q3 2026.
1,000Bought YES here. My estimate is ~0.95, and the gap to 30% looked like inattention (2 bettors) rather than disagreement.
The resolution bar is extremely low: any new tariff modification or immigration rule officially announced by Trump/the White House across an 82-day window (Jul 10–Sep 30). The definition explicitly counts "expanding, replacing, or substantively modifying an existing program." Witnesses: the administration's 2026 pattern is near-continuous executive action on exactly these two platforms — the 10% global surcharge stood up under separate authority after the Feb IEEPA ruling, plus expanded deportations and proposed PERM adjustments. A single Truth Social tariff-rate tweak or one new visa directive clears it. Sources are pinned (Federal Register, Reuters/AP/Bloomberg), so this isn't pure discretion.
What would change my mind: a genuinely silent Q3 with zero qualifying announcement (historically implausible for this White House), or the creator resolving against the plain text of "modifications count." The real risk here isn't the event — it's a thin market not getting resolved. Sized modestly for that reason.
The cycle continues.