Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before July 1, 2025, there is credible evidence of Indian military forces crossing into Pakistani territory with the intent to engage in combat operations. Such evidence may include official statements from the Indian or Pakistani governments, reports from reputable international news organizations, or confirmations from recognized international bodies. If no such evidence is available by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
Background
In April 2025, a deadly attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, resulted in 26 civilian deaths, escalating tensions between India and Pakistan. India attributed the attack to Pakistan-backed militants, leading to retaliatory airstrikes on May 7, targeting alleged terrorist infrastructure within Pakistan. Pakistan responded by downing Indian aircraft and launching its own strikes. The situation intensified when India targeted Pakistan's Nur Khan air base, raising fears of nuclear escalation. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire was established on May 10, 2025, temporarily halting hostilities. (reuters.com)
Considerations
Despite the ceasefire, both nations have maintained a high state of alert. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has stated that military action is "paused" but warned of future retaliation if another terrorist attack occurs. Pakistan has affirmed its commitment to the ceasefire but vowed to respond decisively to any future aggression. (apnews.com, reuters.com) Given the volatile history and recent events, the potential for renewed conflict remains a significant concern.
Recent Developments in India-Pakistan Relations:
1,000