How many Indian-Pakistan conflict deaths before July?
23
100Ṁ566
Jun 30
2,542 people
expected
23%
Above 100
27%
Above 500
16%
Above 1,000
16%
Above 10,000

Total militant + civilian deaths in the present armed conflict. There have been at least 48 so far.

  • Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated they will wait for third-party confirmation of the death count before resolving the market.

  • Update 2025-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that in situations where they previously (and mistakenly) believed they could resolve the market to 'No' (such as potentially for counts less than 100, as per the user's query), their alternative plan is to resolve the market to N/A.

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How does the market resolve if there are less than 100?

@LarsOsborne I thought I could resolve all markets to No, my mistake. Next best alternative is to NA the market, apologies

Some discussion on a coincidentally identical market on Metaculus if anyone is interested https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37328/india-pakistan-conflict-with-100-deaths-in-mayjune-2025/#comments

There have probably been 100 so far, but I will wait until there's more third-party confirmation to resolve.

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