Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) loses power in the next Indian general election (held to elect the 19th Lok Sabha, currently expected in mid-2029).

Specifically, the market will resolve to YES if:

• Following the election, a coalition or party other than the BJP or the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) forms the government of India.

• The next Prime Minister sworn into office following this election is not a member of the BJP or the NDA.

This market resolves to NO if:

• The BJP, either with an outright single-party majority or as the leader of the NDA coalition, forms the government.

• The next Prime Minister sworn into office is a member of the BJP or another party within the NDA coalition.

Additional notes:

• If the election is delayed past 2029, the market will remain open and resolve based on the next Lok Sabha general election held.

• If the BJP wins fewer seats than in 2024 but still successfully forms the government with its NDA allies and installs an NDA Prime Minister, this market resolves to NO.

• Resolution will be determined by official notifications from the Election Commission of India (ECI) and credible international media reporting of the post-election government formation.

Background

In the 2024 Indian general election, the incumbent BJP won 240 seats, falling short of a solo majority (272 seats) but successfully forming a coalition government with its partners in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which secured 293 seats in total. Narendra Modi returned for a third consecutive term as Prime Minister. The primary opposition bloc, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), won 234 seats.

The next general election to elect the 19th Lok Sabha must be held by mid-2029, when the 5-year term of the 18th Lok Sabha expires. High-profile legislative discussions—including proposals for "One Nation, One Election" simultaneous polls and impending seat delimitation based on new demographic data—could significantly alter the electoral landscape leading up to 2029.

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