Resolution criteria

• Official Source of Truth: This market will resolve to the official number of seats won by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as an individual party in the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election, as reported by the Election Commission of India (ECI).

• Coalition / Allies Exclusion: The seat count resolves specifically for candidates contesting under the official BJP party symbol. It does not include seats won by any alliance partners unless those candidates officially ran under the BJP banner and symbol.

• Postponement: If the election is delayed beyond 2027, the market will remain open and resolve based on the next election held to constitute the next Legislative Assembly.

• Verification: In case the ECI results website is down or unavailable at the time of resolution, official gazette notifications from the Chief Electoral Officer of Uttar Pradesh or major national news agencies (such as NDTV or India Today) referencing the final official ECI data will be used to resolve the market.

Background

The Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly consists of 403 seats, making it the largest state legislature in India. A political party or alliance requires 202 seats to claim a simple majority. In the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the BJP secured a comfortable majority by winning 255 seats on its own, while the main opposition Samajwadi Party (SP) won 111 seats. The 2027 election is a major test for the BJP's state organization as it aims to defend its majority against opposition alliances.