Will any year's US GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?

100Ṁ799

2032

20%

chance

ALL

This question asks if the inflation-adjusted US economy will have a year where it's 30% bigger than it has ever been before.

This question resolves YES if, in any year up to and including 2034, the US Real GDP (as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, adjusted for inflation) becomes more than 130% of ALL previous years' Real GDP values AND this value is not later revised down below the 130% threshold in BEA releases within the next calendar year.

The question resolves on January 1st, 2035 if this hasn't happened by then. If BEA data becomes unavailable, other reliable US government economic data sources may be used.

Update 2025-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will not use obviously false or fraudulent numbers from the BEA to resolve this market.

Technology

Economics

US Economy

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?

56% chance

Will the GDP of the US be greater than 50 trillion dollars in 2030?

18% chance

Will US real GDP in Q1 2030 be at least 50% greater than in Q1 2025?

39% chance

Will the GDP of the US be greater than 40 trillion dollars in 2030?

30% chance

Will the GDP of the US be greater than 30 trillion dollars in 2030?

92% chance

Will the United States GDP cross $30 trillion before 2030?

90% chance

Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2025?

1% chance

Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?

36% chance

[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?

24% chance

If US Real GDP reaches 130% of prior years by 2035, which of these stocks will have the highest total return?

7 Comments

10 Holders

21 Trades

Sort by:

How does this resolve if the BEA publishes obviously false/fraudulent numbers that show this; does that count as unavailable?

@Damin I won't use obviously false or fraudelent numbers to resolve this

@TamayBesiroglu cool, that was my assumption but I just wanted to make it clear.

sold Ṁ5 YES

Sold this, as the phrasing could read that it has to be 30 percent larger than the year immediately before, not just larger than any year before our present.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen No, that's not how this resolves. It requires real output to be greater than the previous max by 30%:

> This question resolves YES if, in any year up to and including 2034, the US Real GDP (as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, adjusted for inflation) becomes more than 130% of ALL previous years' Real GDP values AND this value is not later revised down below the 130% threshold in BEA releases within the next calendar year.

@TamayBesiroglu sorry, unclear thonking on my part, but the previous maximum doesn't have to be before our present, just has to be before the year it is 130 percent that

@JussiVilleHeiskanen correct. The question is asking if we will get massive yoy economic growth by 2035 in a way that doesn't include a crash and recovery.