Will any year's US GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?
12
100Ṁ799
2032
20%
chance

This question asks if the inflation-adjusted US economy will have a year where it's 30% bigger than it has ever been before.

This question resolves YES if, in any year up to and including 2034, the US Real GDP (as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, adjusted for inflation) becomes more than 130% of ALL previous years' Real GDP values AND this value is not later revised down below the 130% threshold in BEA releases within the next calendar year.

The question resolves on January 1st, 2035 if this hasn't happened by then. If BEA data becomes unavailable, other reliable US government economic data sources may be used.

  • Update 2025-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will not use obviously false or fraudulent numbers from the BEA to resolve this market.

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