Will a world leader be assassinated by the end of 2023?
329
890
2.1K
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Defining a "world leader" as the president/prime minister/highest-ranking official of a country, beginning January 1st 2023 and ending if someone is assassinated, or a world leader that is in power as of January 1st 2023 but later steps down. Assassination is either definitive (e.g. someone is shot on live TV) or a situation where there is a general consensus of experts/an UN body/some other indisputable evidence there is foul play (e.g. someone falls out a window).

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sold Ṁ1,275 of NO

Forgotten market was able to yoink my money before Putin kicks the bucket

predicted NO

I’m surprised this market didn’t react to lukashenko’s hospitalisation yesterday. Seems he will be okay though

bought Ṁ22 of YES

Can we get a clear definition of "country?" For example, if the head of Palestine, Kurdistan, Israel, Kosovo, Somaliland, the Taliban, one of the Russian-backed splinter states, or Taiwan was assassinated, how would the market resolve?

predicted YES

If we went with something like "UN member state" that would rule out Taiwan, Kosovo, Palestine, and the Vatican. US recognition would rule out Kurdistan and Somaliland.
If we went with something like "is either A (member of the UN, or non-member observer state of the UN), or B (recognized by 10 or more UN states), that would include all of the above, and likely a few other edge cases.

predicted NO

a situation where multiple experts all believe there is foul play

Does that literally mean it counts if there exist at least two experts in the world who believe there is foul play?

@StevenK Yeah also plz define expert.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Defining a "world leader" as the president/prime minister/highest-ranking official of a country, beginning January 1st 2023 and ending if someone is assassinated, or a world leader that is in power as of January 1st 2023 but later steps down.

This makes it sound like someone who comes to power in the year 2023 and is then assassinated doesn't count as a "world leader", but I assume that's not the intended meaning?

If a world leader currently in power isn't a leader anymore later in the year, but nonetheless is murdered, does it count?

Chiefs of State in constitutional democracies, like the King of Spain, does it count?

We do a little insider trading

In case of an investigation by any federal entity or similar, I do not have any involvement with this group or with the people in it, I do not know how I am here, probably added by a third party, I do not support any actions by members of this group.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

Would love resolution criteria for determining assassination before I bet more

I’m only really interested if suspicious circumstances count. That is, a death without a clear determination exclusive of foul play.

predicted YES

Additionally, what if Putin “steps down” or is forced out, and then killed? Is that an assassination?

What if he disappears? Does that count? Or does agent 47 have to get caught

@Gen If multiple reputable sources suspect foul play (e.g. he didn't just happen to fall out of a window or drink polonium tea), then yes, but if it's just rumormongering then no. If someone began the year as a world leader, and later steps down/is replaced, they still count. I'd also expect that if someone were to be assassinated it would be someone currently in a position of power anyway.

predicted YES

@TaiRuiYang I appreciate the clarification. As an example, would you have counted Shinzo Abe? He was definitely assassinated, and the longest serving prime minister Japan ever had. BUT he was 2 years out of office when it happened

predicted YES

@Gen Nvm I just reread, in power as of 2023 jan 1. I think I’m clear now. Thanks

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Base rate here is quite low - according to Wikipedia, 7 in the last 20 years.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@a and (according to that list) only five of the last 20 years had at least one assassination

bought Ṁ40 of NO

@meefburger Fuck it bringing the market down to 25% then

@meefburger 1 out of the last 10, 26 out of the last 50. So I guess it depends on the relevance of short-term vs. long-term data.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@StevenK 63 out of 100 (up to counting mistakes).

predicted NO

@StevenK The 2 cases in 2021 seem unrelated, so maybe for evidence purposes that's like if it happened in 2 different years. On the other hand, "Déby was injured on April 19 while commanding troops on the frontline fighting the militants and died April 20" according to Wikipedia, and it's not clear to me if that counts as an assassination.