This market predicts whether the European Union will still exist as a political and economic union of member states with shared sovereignty in key policy areas by December 31, 2050.
For this market to resolve YES, the EU must:
Have at least 20 member states
Maintain a single market with free movement of goods, services, capital, and people among member states
Have common institutions including the European Commission, European Parliament, and European Council
Have a common currency (Euro) used by a majority of member states
The market resolves NO if:
The EU formally dissolves or is replaced by a substantially weaker different entity with a different name (The creation of a European Federation, for example, would not resolve the market NO)
The EU fragments into smaller regional blocs or separate entities
The EU loses core competencies and becomes merely a free trade area without political integration
The number of member states falls below 20
The Euro is abandoned as the common currency by a majority of current Eurozone members
Resolution sources: Official EU websites, major news outlets reporting on the status of the EU.
2050: https://manifold.markets/Symmetry/will-the-european-union-still-exist
2075: https://manifold.markets/Symmetry/will-the-european-union-still-exist-PESPQ6E88Z
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@TomNeuburg the scope of this market is much broader than an individual politician managing to make the EU implode by pulling out though
@mariopasquato You're right, but the only cause for disintegration would be populist politicians, since the institutions themselves will not give up any power. The European Court of Justice will naturally expand the EU jurisdictions. (See Mangold v Helm or Cassis de Dijon)
@TomNeuburg there is time for a couple of nuclear wars and the odd AI takeover between now and 2100, though. For comparison imagine trying to predict, in 1925, whether the Soviet Union would still be around by year 2000.