Will an F-35 be lost by the US in 2025
27
1kṀ4313resolved Jan 29
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Lost for any reason. Within 2025 calendar year.
Counts
Crash
Lost
Captured
Disappeared
Stolen by adversary
Does not count
Unusable plane due to bugs
Repossessed by creditors
Unavailable due to conflict with former ally who no longer allows us physical access
We still control it but it can't take off due to runway damage or runway unavailability, even intentional
Sold or transferred to ally or other
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ388 | |
| 2 | Ṁ224 | |
| 3 | Ṁ216 | |
| 4 | Ṁ97 | |
| 5 | Ṁ64 |
People are also trading
Which of these military conflicts will escalate to war in 2025?
Will the US be at war with Iran before the end of 2025
13% chance
Will at least 3 F-35s be lost by the US in 2026
37% chance
Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2027
16% chance
Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030
18% chance
How many aviation accidents and incidents will occur in the United States in 2025?
Will an F5+ Tornado strike the United States by the end of 2025?
19% chance
Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027
18% chance
New F-35 sold to Turkey by EOY2028?
47% chance
Will there be another plane crash in US airspace with >= 20 victims (fatalities) in 2025?
13% chance
Sort by:
Looks like the US has written off 7 F-35's over the course of 10 years (probably this is an undercount). I presume that implies a 70% chance of losing a jet any one year
@QuestionableQuentin That's hilarious - I had some bike work to do at the time. Here is the correct link: https://www.f-16.net/aircraft-database/F-35/mishaps-and-accidents/year/2024/
People are also trading
Related questions
Which of these military conflicts will escalate to war in 2025?
Will the US be at war with Iran before the end of 2025
13% chance
Will at least 3 F-35s be lost by the US in 2026
37% chance
Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2027
16% chance
Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030
18% chance
How many aviation accidents and incidents will occur in the United States in 2025?
Will an F5+ Tornado strike the United States by the end of 2025?
19% chance
Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027
18% chance
New F-35 sold to Turkey by EOY2028?
47% chance
Will there be another plane crash in US airspace with >= 20 victims (fatalities) in 2025?
13% chance