🏅 Top traders

50% chance. Any disaster, of natural origins or otherwise. There are 18 natural hazards included in the National Risk Index of FEMA: avalanche, coastal flooding, cold wave, drought, earthquake, hail, heat wave, tropical cyclone, ice storm, landslide, lightning, riverine flooding, strong wind, tornado, tsunami, volcanic activity, wildfire, winter weather. In addition there are also tornados and dust storms. But I'm also counting many, many other hazards and sources such as war, coup, AI take-off, astronomical phenomena, nuclear meltdowns, and so forth. Very non-exhaustive list. Resolves YES if a disaster happens between question creation on July 28th and question close a week later and causes 10,000 or more people to lose their homes or otherwise flee in that same timeframe. Ongoing disasters, such as wars, require new isolatable events to take place to qualify. Otherwise NO. I expect there's a chance this question gets a bit dicey so, unlike my usual, I won't be creating starting limit orders or trading here.