Will the Gävle goat be destroyed by fire (again) this year?
28
499
550
resolved Dec 30
Resolved
NO

Every year for Christmas since 1966 the community in Gävle, Sweden builds a massive straw Yule goat in the square. And starting in the first year it was ever made and most years since, it has been attacked by arsonists and destroyed. Destroying the goat is a crime punishable by fines and imprisonment, and yet there has long been an arms race between adding more sophisticated security and counter-arson techniques vs. the sneaky ingenuity of the arsonists. The competition is basically a tradition of its own at this point, and the community that builds the goat often has a backup goat in case they lose this year's bout.

Though so far 38 have been damaged or destroyed out of 57, not all have been totally destroyed and not all that have been destroyed have been destroyed by fire. Moreover, the goat has had a string of luck (and high security) in recent years. Will it survive this year?

Resolves YES if the Gävle goat burns down before the local clock ticks into the new year. Resolves NO if the goat survives the fire(s), is destroyed by any other means, or escapes taking any damage at all. Though highly unlikely, resolves N/A if the goat isn't built this year. If the goat is on fire before the year is over and that same fire finishes burning it down after the year changes, that counts for YES. If rebuilt or replaced, only the initial goat counts.

Note that there is a second goat built in the same square by a different group (the Natural Science Club). There's also a bit of an arms race between the two groups for having the biggest and most successful goat. That other goat sometimes burns down, too, but has a higher frequency of destruction by being thrown in the river. For the purposes of this question, only the goat formally known as the Gävle goat, built by the Southern Merchants (or their designees), counts.

See also:

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ278
2Ṁ161
3Ṁ107
4Ṁ84
5Ṁ68
Sort by:
predicted NO

Just because one person edits the wikipedia page doesn't mean the goat is destroyed. It clearly isn't destroyed (see the youtube livestream) and could yet be set on fire.

predicted NO

Lol

(source)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 7% to 6%
predicted YES

unexpected turn of events, damage by bird:

this is quite the plot twist - to what degree was it damaged? I assume the original is still in place?

predicted YES

@shankypanky yep, still listed as standing!

predicted NO

@shankypanky Damage is quite light, it's just the horns are a bit worn: https://twitter.com/Gavlebocken/status/1735327877002895433

@LasseRasinen I love this site

I learn so much about so many random things in the world 🐐

thanks for sharing this, the goat has 45k+ followers!

predicted YES

The poachers better watch out!

Banger