Every year for Christmas since 1966 the community in Gävle, Sweden builds a massive straw Yule goat in the square. And starting in the first year it was ever made and most years since, it has been attacked by arsonists and destroyed. Destroying the goat is a crime punishable by fines and imprisonment, and yet there has long been an arms race between adding more sophisticated security and counter-arson techniques vs. the sneaky ingenuity of the arsonists. The competition is basically a tradition of its own at this point, and the community that builds the goat often has a backup goat in case they lose this year's bout.
There's also a second goat, built by the Natural Science Club, in the same square. They compete with the group that builds the first goat, the Southern Merchants, to build the biggest goat. That goat, too, is often destroyed by fire or stolen and thrown in the river.
Though history shows that most of the goats are destroyed one way or another, the goats have had string of luck (and high security) in recent years. Will they both survive this year?
Resolves 50% for the fate of each of the goats, to the most specific answer (48h > 2w > 1mo).
Though unlikely, if either goat is not built, then its 50% is assigned to the other. More edge cases:
If neither goat is built, this resolves N/A
If a goat is on fire (or such) before the time period is over and that same fire finishes burning it down later, that still counts as YES for the time period it caught fire
If either goat is rebuilt or replaced, only each initial goat counts
Destruction by river counts if the goat is not retrieved and restored to its place of honor without reconstruction
See also:
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it's still standing and its fate is an outlier - not destroyed in a traditional way but the birds took apart everything but the skeleton. so, even though there's a frame it can still be marked destroyed? (somewhat subjective I guess because it's an unexpected turn of events) the main goat definitely wasn't in its full glory. I didn't see anything about the fate of the second goat?
@shankypanky yep a skeleton, whether burned out or eaten by jackdaws, ain't a whole goat. afaict the second goat was fine. resolving 50/50 shortly
On its official twitter account, the Goat is claiming it's still alive.
"Looking like a true survivor, feeling like a little kid. I'm still standing. Yeah, yeah, yeah"
https://twitter.com/Gavlebocken/status/1741178635074117766
@Stralor I do a agree with it being all bones, but I also think it is a bit premature calling it's destruction. Since it isn't "really" "alive" it gets kinda arbitrary. What happens if major news papers in Sweden later today or tomorrow proclaims that the goat did indeed "survive" 2023, albeit with heavy damaged, and the Wikipedia page gets updated with the status as "survived"?
My feeling is this might well happen, especially as the current Wikipedia status smells very much like "original research".
I also, of course, am biased here due to my betting, not shying away from that.
Just to add an example, the local news paper in Gävle had an article about the goat on december 27th, and their take was, translated, "Hard christmas weekend for the Gävle goat - resembles a skeleton. Gävles most apparent Christmas symbol has survived the days inbetween - but it's notably worn. The straws on the Gävle goat are eaten untill the skeleton is visible over almost all of its body".
https://www.gd.se/2023-12-27/hard-julhelg-for-gavlebocken-liknar-benrangel
@shankypanky You overbought
Resolves 50% for the fate of each of the goats, to the most specific answer (48h > 2w > 1mo).
@SavioMak I am unsure of Pat's decision though so I am being very risk averse, I'm happy to transfer all my shares to you at 35%
I'm going to stay I'm feeling enthusiastic
and this can't resolve until the new year because there's a second goat (presumably)
if there isn't a second goat it has to go based on this one which is clearly destroyed by birds? I guess the unaccounted for edge case is that the frame is still standing but the goat has been eaten and that's a subjective call but I'll obviously plead my case if it comes to it lol
@shankypanky there's a second goat by a different group. afaik it's still fine, but yeah this resolves at least 50% to before new year
oh no
unexpected twist
(Pat commented this news on the fire market a few days ago but I forgot it might be relevant here - I wonder if the birds might be the goats downfall this year)
@LasseRasinen Wikipedia still lists that goat as "standing with damage", so not destroyed yet! but damn this is hilarious
@traders reminder that this market is about both goats, so even if the one goat is destroyed that only resolves 50%. Lasse do you have info on the status of the other goat? I can't seem to find the source I was using before
@Stralor I'm hedging that the growing presence of birds protects the goat from arsonists (🤞) but anything is possible in the name of tradition I guess