Every year for Christmas since 1966 the community in Gävle, Sweden builds a massive straw Yule goat in the square. And starting in the first year it was ever made and most years since, it has been attacked by arsonists and destroyed. Destroying the goat is a crime punishable by fines and imprisonment, and yet there has long been an arms race between adding more sophisticated security and counter-arson techniques vs. the sneaky ingenuity of the arsonists. The competition is basically a tradition of its own at this point, and the community that builds the goat often has a backup goat in case they lose this year's bout.

There's also a second goat, built by the Natural Science Club, in the same square. They compete with the group that builds the first goat, the Southern Merchants, to build the biggest goat. That goat, too, is often destroyed by fire or stolen and thrown in the river.

Though history shows that most of the goats are destroyed one way or another, the goats have had string of luck (and high security) in recent years. Will they both survive this year?

Resolves 50% for the fate of each of the goats, to the most specific answer (48h > 2w > 1mo).

Though unlikely, if either goat is not built, then its 50% is assigned to the other. More edge cases:

• If neither goat is built, this resolves N/A

• If a goat is on fire (or such) before the time period is over and that same fire finishes burning it down later, that still counts as YES for the time period it caught fire

• If either goat is rebuilt or replaced, only each initial goat counts

• Destruction by river counts if the goat is not retrieved and restored to its place of honor without reconstruction

See also: