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MANIFOLD
Will the Gävle goat be destroyed by fire (again) this year?
4
Ṁ1kṀ75
Dec 31
51%
chance

Every year for Christmas since 1966 the community in Gävle, Sweden builds a massive straw Yule goat in the square. And starting in the first year it was ever made and most years since, it has been attacked by arsonists and destroyed. Destroying the goat is a crime punishable by fines and imprisonment, and yet there has long been an arms race between adding more sophisticated security and counter-arson techniques vs. the sneaky ingenuity of the arsonists. The competition is basically a tradition of its own at this point, and the community that builds the goat often has a backup goat in case they lose this year's bout.

Though most have been destroyed in one way or another, not all have been totally destroyed and not all that have been destroyed have been destroyed by fire. And security has gotten much stronger in recent years.. Will it survive this year?

Resolves YES if the Gävle goat burns down before the local clock ticks into the new year. Resolves NO if the goat survives the fire(s), is destroyed by any other means, or escapes taking any damage at all. If the goat is on fire before the year is over and that same fire finishes burning it down after the year changes, that counts for YES. If rebuilt or replaced, only the initial goat counts.

Note that there is a second goat built in the same square by a different group (the Natural Science Club). There's also a bit of an arms race between the two groups for having the biggest and most successful goat. That other goat sometimes burns down, too, but has a higher frequency of destruction by being thrown in the river. For the purposes of this question, only the goat formally known as the Gävle goat, built by the Southern Merchants (or their designees), counts.

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I was informed I should run this market again after so long. I cleaned up the old description a little bit, but lmk if it needs any more tweaks.