Will I work in Antarctica this year? Which parts of the process will happen?
Will I work in Antarctica this year? Which parts of the process will happen?
22
1.4kṀ7874
resolved Jul 30
Resolved
YES
Scheduled an interview for the first role
Resolved
70%
Interview gut check [Resolves % to how well I think it went]
Resolved
YES
Passed an interview round
Resolved
YES
Acquired relevant work and skill certifications
Resolved
YES
Got a job offer
Resolved
YES
Accepted job offer
Resolved
YES
Passed the background check ("EBI")
Resolved
NO
Passed the medical, drug, and dental exams
Resolved
NO
Fulfilled visa and travel prereqs
Resolved
NO
Got on first flight
Resolved
NO
"On the Ice" (Arrive in Antarctica) [I prob won't have internet down there. Resolution may be significantly delayed]
Resolved
NO
Completed full term of employment (6-ish months, apparently a not-insignificant amount of people quit early)
Resolved
NO
Accepted an offer to winter-over
Resolved
NO
Completed winter-over term

I applied to work in Antarctica for the coming austral summer. I'd LOVE to go. If I went, I would arrive October-ish. Antarctica, as you likely know, has a bunch of research bases, and I applied to go through the US program, which has 3 stations. I'm not a science PhD, but luckily for me they have need of a whole town's worth of folks to keep the lights on, the masses fed, and the shit and trash removed from the continent.

I applied for a bunch of roles in food service, lodging, waste management, and sys-ops. I've been told the jobs down there are very competitive but that those first three were my best chance. My application passed the first round of vetting for some of the food service and lodging roles, which suits me great as I like roles that allow me to have more person-to-person interaction. Then I was told to wait for a hiring manager to reach out.

I hadn't heard anything for a couple of months so I figured I was iced in the not-fun way. But today I got an email asking to schedule an interview. There was a sneaky gotcha in the request that I realized after I hit send on my response, so we'll see if the process keeps going.

What parts of this process will I succeed in? Any special resolutions (like interview gut check) will have notes in the answer. If I am informed of more steps, I'll add 'em. All of these are required and any NO can force resolution on the rest (-> NO), except stuff like "Scheduled an interview" as I have applied for multiple roles.

This market is about the 2024-2025 season, so while most of these resolve in 2024, a few of the later ones might not resolve until well into 2025 and the close date reflects this.

Happy to share more info if wanted, at my discretion ofc.

As this is an aspirational Personal Goals market, I will only bet YES and never sell. Feel free to bet against me!

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy