I applied to work in Antarctica for the coming austral summer. I'd LOVE to go. If I went, I would arrive October-ish. Antarctica, as you likely know, has a bunch of research bases, and I applied to go through the US program, which has 3 stations. I'm not a science PhD, but luckily for me they have need of a whole town's worth of folks to keep the lights on, the masses fed, and the shit and trash removed from the continent.
I applied for a bunch of roles in food service, lodging, waste management, and sys-ops. I've been told the jobs down there are very competitive but that those first three were my best chance. My application passed the first round of vetting for some of the food service and lodging roles, which suits me great as I like roles that allow me to have more person-to-person interaction. Then I was told to wait for a hiring manager to reach out.
I hadn't heard anything for a couple of months so I figured I was iced in the not-fun way. But today I got an email asking to schedule an interview. There was a sneaky gotcha in the request that I realized after I hit send on my response, so we'll see if the process keeps going.
What parts of this process will I succeed in? Any special resolutions (like interview gut check) will have notes in the answer. If I am informed of more steps, I'll add 'em. All of these are required and any NO can force resolution on the rest (-> NO), except stuff like "Scheduled an interview" as I have applied for multiple roles.
This market is about the 2024-2025 season, so while most of these resolve in 2024, a few of the later ones might not resolve until well into 2025 and the close date reflects this.
Happy to share more info if wanted, at my discretion ofc.
As this is an aspirational Personal Goals market, I will only bet YES and never sell. Feel free to bet against me!
Related questions
there's been two brand-new hiccups. woo
1) the gov't wants me to submit a permission form via a secure OneDrive link, but msoft's tech is broke and never sends me access links when people send those to me, ever (it's me, im the edge case for all tech to break). when asked about alternate means, the bureaucracy dug in their heels and said I have to submit that way. path forward unclear
2) my dentist doesn't have the records on file for some of the info needed. my next appt is in July and I've coordinated with the people doing the PQ vetting to get that to them then, as well as to refresh everything else on the dental sheets. However, I'm not sure if that will end up cutting it too close to hard deadlines, like if i end up needing work done, or maybe ill lose my spot in line bc of it
@KongoLandwalker I mean, as an explosives handler I also know that fireworks create a lot of debris and waste that's classified as hazardous when it gets wet. Absolutely not good for environment that needs to stay pristine! it's a good joke tho
update: I've almost got all my paperwork for medical stuff in order. should be ready and sent by this time next week. there might be red flags that outright NPQ ("not physically qualified") me, though my doc gave me the clear. it's likely I'll have to apply for a waiver for treated mental health stuff.
I'm also expecting the fingerprint cards to arrive soon and then I'll be able to get that sorted, hopefully before I leave town on another trip. I'm cutting it close on these deadlines.
Furthermore, I keep getting asked to verify certain background info where I'm having issues establishing contact between the investigative agency and persons from my past. I don't foresee this being a 100% blocker but it's unclear if it will be resolved perfectly.
@traders as per feedback from Kongo, I intend to resolve all unsuccessful steps to NO whether they are started or not
@Stralor update: I've received the packet about all the medical and dental requirements and exams. I have ~5 weeks to get that stuff sorted and submitted, iirc. That timeline might be tough; historically my dentist's office has a 6 month lead time
uhhh so I've got news but I don't think it resolves anything. maybe?
I received documents to fill out for pre-employment. Wasn't sent an offer letter or told I was accepted or anything, but I'm authorizing BG checks, filling out all kinds of other forms. I think it's a solidly good sign but I'm not sure how to handle that re: this market. Maybe "Passed an interview round" -> YES, then hold off on anything else?
is this market priced correctly? maybe! but it strikes me as a bit too highly priced for my credence, especially considering the chances of chain N/Aing parts of the process that haven't started.
since I'm only betting YES to incentivize NOs (and myself), I'm wondering if it's just too small of a market or I really do have good odds of going to Antarctica.
what can I do to help make this more robust?
add more liquidity via limit orders?
provide more insight and details of the process?
??
lmk
@Stralor people are not betting NO, Because you mentioned the possibility of N/A. It looks like some stage either happens positively, or is likely to resolve due to chain NA from earlier step. So betting NO is likely just freezing mana. More NO-confident the person who comes is, more he thinks everything will end up with NA.
It would be more attractive to never NA. If the stage does not happen (you either did not reach the stage or fail during the stage) it resolves to NO.
@KongoLandwalker yeah that's fair. I was thinking that anything that didn't start would N/A, and anything that did would go NO. but you make a good point. I guess I'll switch it up!
I will be pretty strict with myself on this, measuring both my performance and the vibes I get. "Bad" "Meh" or "Fine" from 10-50%, "Good" to 70, "Great" to 90. 0% and 100% are only for immediate dramatic results: catastrophically bad interview that results in an angry call that gets cut short / getting an instant enthusiastic job offer.