Background: Antarctica, the last great wilderness on Earth, has long been protected by international treaties that limit human intervention, primarily for research purposes. As climate change alters the landscape and the potential for resource extraction becomes viable, there's growing speculation about human settlement in Antarctica. This forecast aims to evaluate the possibility of the establishment of a city in Antarctica designed for permanent human residence by 2050.
Criteria for "City for Permanent Human Residence":
Minimum Population: For the settlement to qualify as a "city", it should support a continuous population of at least 50,000 individuals.
Infrastructure: The city should possess infrastructure like housing, energy sources, waste management, communication facilities, and possibly health, education, and recreational facilities.
Self-sustainability: While periodic supply routes might be established, the city should primarily be self-sustaining, having means to produce or procure its food, water, and other essential resources.
Permanence: The city should be designed for year-round living, not just seasonal or research-based habitation.
Resolution Criteria:
Verified Establishment: The establishment of the city must be documented in recognized international news sources or journals. Evidence might include satellite images, official announcements from involved countries or organizations, or testimonies from inhabitants.
Respect for International Treaties: If international laws like the Antarctic Treaty System are amended to allow for such settlements, the city's establishment must comply with these legal frameworks.
End Date: The city must be confirmed as operational and inhabited by December 31, 2050. Any announcements or groundwork after this date won't be considered.
Potential Caveats:
Temporary Settlements: Establishments designed for short-term residence (like mining operations, research bases, or transient worker villages) will not be considered as cities.
Jurisdiction & Ownership: Antarctica doesn't belong to any one nation, so jurisdictional and territorial claims related to the city's establishment might arise. For the purpose of this forecast, the focus will remain on the physical establishment and habitation, irrespective of potential geopolitical disputes.
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