Will any country's current Head of State or Government die in the next month? (Sept-Oct)
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resolved Oct 21
Resolved
NO

Presidents, Prime Ministers, Monarchs, etc.

Must be a country's leader (for governments with both, either head of state or head of government is fine, even if ceremonial) as of this question's creation date on Aug 21 2023 or become such (and die) by question close. Doesn't need to die "in office".

Members of a council that is itself the Head count, but "deputies" "vices" and "assistants" where there is a higher seat do not.

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November:

bought Ṁ400 of NO

Also if you're turning them into a series, try to make them with clean monthly cuts rather than by the 20th? :)

@HenriThunberg yeah, definitely. it just happened to be the timing of the original and felt less awkward at the time

I've run this market twice now, and I like the idea as a series. I'm thinking of making it one recurrent MC after this one resolves. Do y'all think it will work well as an unlinked multiple choice market going forward? would contain the series and could allow simultaneous tracking of both months/years, etc.

predicted NO

@Stralor personally I prefer one market (no MC) on a month by month basis, but honestly do whatever you want (individual markets might be better for your trading bonuses)

predicted YES

@Stralor I wouldn't participate in a MC - each individual odds are less than 1% on a monthly basis, so literally all there is to it is who is refreshing the news

@PeterBuyukliev even with the new unlinked MC? alright, seems pretty unanimous for the time being. the next will be a good ol' binary and I'll keep that up for the time being :)

bought Ṁ25 of YES

@Stralor Would the death of Mahmoud Abbas (President of the State of Palestine) or for that matter, Ismail Haniyeh (Chairman of Hamas) count?

predicted YES

@Panfilo the first definitely, the second... also appears to be on the list, so sure!

predicted YES

@mariopasquato omg this awesome thanks makes resolving a ton easier

predicted YES

@Stralor however, unlike this list, I do count kings, queens, and other life-long termers, as a heads up to traders

predicted YES

@Stralor found it with bing chatbot

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