Who is @MarsMartian (trader who knew about the Vance pick a month ago)?
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3.1kṀ26kresolved Jul 24
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N/AA man
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N/ASomeone who has never completed a half marathon
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N/AA US Citizen
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N/ASomeone who never benched 225
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N/AA person with a second Manifold account
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N/ASomeone taller than 5’7
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N/AA rationalist who made a very good educated guess based on evidence
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N/AOverconfident rando who got lucky
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N/AA person younger than 35
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N/AOther
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N/AOhio state citizen
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N/AAn Ivy League alumni
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N/ASomeone who has fake accounts and made large bets on each for each plausible VP and can now celebrate on one because one came true
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N/AThe author of this question
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N/AA woman
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N/AA bot of some sort (including AI)
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N/AA publicly known figure
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N/AHacker who got access to this information somehow
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N/AMember of the Trump family
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N/ATrump staffer
@MarsMartian started trading 1.5 months ago. 100% of their trades have bet on JD Vance as VP pick. They went all-in and their portfolio value tripled after today’s announcement.
Market resolves to an admission by Mars (I’ll take them at their word unless they’re obviously lying/joking), my best guess if some info comes to light, participant consensus if there is one and no better info comes to light, or NA at close if there’s been no new info and no participant consensus.
Multiple answers can resolve true.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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