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@MarsMartian started trading 1.5 months ago. 100% of their trades have bet on JD Vance as VP pick. They went all-in and their portfolio value tripled after today’s announcement.
Market resolves to an admission by Mars (I’ll take them at their word unless they’re obviously lying/joking), my best guess if some info comes to light, participant consensus if there is one and no better info comes to light, or NA at close if there’s been no new info and no participant consensus.
Multiple answers can resolve true.
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as per request for privacy from the party in question, I'm N/Aing this. it just doesn't make sense to dawdle and decide a new YES/NO default resolution imo
thanks for the fun everyone, I think even @MarsMartian had some! but I think you'll agree there's no need to lock up your mana in something that won't resolve
Didn't see this in time, but yeah. I should've respected their anonymity.
How would Pat know how to resolve then? 😅
Ah ok, yeah that's your right to ask for on personal markets, will do.
@BonjTwo it was a poorly caliberated prediction and irrationally large bet unless they knew something. They moved the price substantially and went all-in. So if they’re an outsider and it comes down to my judgment I’d resolve “accurate prediction” ɴᴏ. Nevertheless it can resolve “accurate prediction” if some info emerges and there’s a participant consensus..
Your argument is reasonable if it was real money. But it could just be someone who thought “Vance is a strong contender, let’s sign up to this play-money website and make a bet that he’ll be selected. I have nothing to lose.” Also, I don’t know what you mean by “poorly calibrated”…
Also, I don’t know what you mean by “poorly calibrated”…
https://calibration.city/introduction
This is a pretty good introduction
@BonjTwo you’re right that it’s rational, strictly speaking. For the purposes of this market I’d still call that irrational. I feel there’s an implicit assumption on manifold that we care about our play expected value.