as per request for privacy from the party in question, I'm N/Aing this. it just doesn't make sense to dawdle and decide a new YES/NO default resolution imo

thanks for the fun everyone, I think even @MarsMartian had some! but I think you'll agree there's no need to lock up your mana in something that won't resolve

@ElmerFudd N/A good with you?

Didn't see this in time, but yeah. I should've respected their anonymity.

I asked to resolve this.

@Stralor

Are all of your bets in the accurate direction?

no. i just bet no on everything for fun.

How would Pat know how to resolve then? 😅

i assumed you could end it whenever.

Oh so you mean it should resolve N/A?

correct as no information has been provided.

Ah ok, yeah that's your right to ask for on personal markets, will do.

thank you ❤

I don't think I would like to resolve this mainly because there are too many options and I poisoned the well by placing indiscriminate bets.

A man: 92%

A woman: 15%

Seems very odd

https://manifold.markets/Rucker/the-manifold-gender-census

Time for the Dark Enlightenment?

Y’all think I’m an overconfident rando too, huh?

who

A "rando" who saw random jumps on PredictIt (caused by actual insiders) Not sure what option this is

You can add it

The plot thickens

If you're a time traveler from the future, better to bet on stocks

@ElmerFudd Why is it phrased like this? Why not just “someone who made an accurate prediction”?

That's less precise. "Rando" implies it isn't someone in Vance's or Trump's circle, "someone" doesn't

@BonjTwo it was a poorly caliberated prediction and irrationally large bet unless they knew something. They moved the price substantially and went all-in. So if they’re an outsider and it comes down to my judgment I’d resolve “accurate prediction” ɴᴏ. Nevertheless it can resolve “accurate prediction” if some info emerges and there’s a participant consensus..

Your argument is reasonable if it was real money. But it could just be someone who thought “Vance is a strong contender, let’s sign up to this play-money website and make a bet that he’ll be selected. I have nothing to lose.” Also, I don’t know what you mean by “poorly calibrated”…

Also, I don’t know what you mean by “poorly calibrated”…

https://calibration.city/introduction

This is a pretty good introduction

@BonjTwo you’re right that it’s rational, strictly speaking. For the purposes of this market I’d still call that irrational. I feel there’s an implicit assumption on manifold that we care about our play expected value.