Let's play a variation on poker! Like all the decent games of poker, this will be a lot about leveraging luck with strategy and mind games; a perfect match for a place about predictions imo.
We're playing a variation based on Texas Hold 'Em specially designed for working on Manifold over a series of markets, but everyone can participate and bet even if they don't buy a hand. See "How It Works" below for more info.
This is the central place for info for this hand. New questions will be posted here as we go.
This question resolves to the winner(s) equally at the end of the hand. Note that bets here don't determine the result of the game. Go to the current round's question for that.
Current Status
The River, heads up (with the possibility of resurrection). The minimum is 40.
6 of diamonds, 3 of hearts, 7 of diamonds, 6 of hearts, and 3 of clubs showing on the board.
The Audience
Eliminated in the Flop.
Queen of Hearts, 2 of Hearts
Cheats
In this hand players and audience members can pay to do "cheats".
Cheats can be bought by adding a subsidy in the current betting round and commenting what cheat you'd like or sending me a managram with the same info, and all cheats count towards earning an extra tournament point for the hand, which is earned at 100 mana spent towards the prize pool. I'll respond with the answer privately, if it involves cards. Managrams will be added to a prize pool given to the winner(s) at the end.
I will try to be timely in granting your cheat, but may take up to 12 hours to respond (so plan your cheats accordingly).
Menu ~
20 mana - see a card you haven't seen yet from a random player's current hand (not told which, can have been eliminated or unclaimed), up to 3 times
50 mana - call a specific card and ask me if it's in the game
50 mana - pair with another player, steal 25% of their resolution percent if they win, give them 25% of yours if you win. each player can be in one pair
100 mana - resurrect your hand after folding
100 mana - draw a replacement hand or join late, while supplies last. only 13 hands will be drawn (12 + the Audience), so you'll be grabbing one that wasn't claimed
How It Works
You can get a hand here before the game starts by paying the subsidy to add yourself to the list. Limited to the first 12 players (though I don't expect to have that many).
Players who get a hand are welcome to share it, or team up, bluff, obfuscate, and misdirect, whether on the questions, over discord, or wherever they see fit. They're also welcome to bet for or against their opponents!
After we fill up or a couple of days, I'll kick off the game with the first of the rapid (~1 day) questions for each of the four rounds of betting (Deal, Flop, Turn, River).
Each player must commit a certain amount of mana on YES on themselves each round to advance to the next stage, as indicated by the round's trading history, otherwise they fold. Their commitment is the net of YES mana spent on themselves minus NO mana spent on themselves. This minimum starts at 10 mana for the Deal.
If any player commits double or more than the minimum in any round, the minimum is doubled in all future rounds. i.e.: if the minimum mana to advance in a round is 20 and one or more people commit 40+, all future rounds have a minimum of 40, unless they get doubled further.
The Audience Hand works exactly like personal hands, except it:
is publicly visible
was bought in by me
advances by counting only YES bets on it, but needs double the minimum
The round questions resolve at the end of the game to the winner(s), equally.
If two or more players stick it out to the end I'll reveal their hands, announce the winner(s), and resolve all the remaining questions accordingly.
If for whatever reason every player folds at any stage, the win goes to the player who held the highest bet on themselves in the previous round.
This hand is part of a short tournament series. There are several ways to score points in the tournament (even if you don't get a hand).
As you might have noticed, the rules of this special variant allow for mismatched bets by players, so feel free to jump in even if you're intimidated by a whale in the water! They can do their thing, profit by playing market dynamics, and you can still come out on top :) Admins and Manifold staff also have no inherent advantage, so don't be shy!
As I'll know all of the cards, I won't be betting or playing in the rounds, and I cannot be bribed to reveal other players' information or tilt in your favor except with official cheats. My house cut is simply the trader bonuses on any questions I make for this, though I'll accept tips for my role as dealer if you're so inclined.
Of course, side markets are welcome. Feel free to add them to the Manifold Plays Poker group and comment them here for shared visibility, and they'll count for the tournament!
Side markets:
/Jason/manifold-plays-poker-hand-5-how-man
/Stralor/who-will-win-place-and-show-in-hand-38e051c645e7
/Stralor/will-the-audience-make-it-to-the-fl
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ474 | |
| 2 | Ṁ232 | |
| 3 | Ṁ168 | |
| 4 | Ṁ126 | |
| 5 | Ṁ28 |
How did we feel about the cheats? I think it led to an exciting game! But some felt better than others. If we use them again, the changes I'm considering making:
No random card at 20 mana. seems lame
No late joiners (so it's easier to track which cards are in the game), though I wish there was an easy way to keep this
No changing hands after the Deal (so it's easier to track which cards are in the game), though I wish there was an easy way to keep this
Call-a-card will actually return cards you're up against, since we'll be sure what's in the game. Every card that was asked of me afaik was in the unclaimed hands
And I'm unsure about what to do with resurrection. Seems awesome, but unfair?? Idk Maybe no "Other" or "Resurrected" field. You only get resolved to in the questions you were participating in, otherwise it resolves to 2nd place? that's also weird
@Stralor We'll leave this an open question for now. Please discuss, and we'll decide before Hand 6 goes to the Deal. I'm keen to jump to the next hand ASAP so I'm gonna go make the market
My betting assuming resurrection was unlikely was a disaster. But the cheats made it interesting. I would agree there were too many unclaimed hands. Perhaps once the deal market is created there can only be one (late joiner or resurrection or change hands) once one of those happens others are prohibited and so after deal market is created all bar one of the unclaimed dealt hands are removed from game.
This is just one reaction, I will probably be happy with whatever you decide.
@Stralor Resurrection needs to be tweaked for CHAOS MODE. As I see it, resurrection has two known "legitimate" uses -- one is to serve as a means of grace for someone whose life exploded and/or otherwise forgot to bid in a round. The other is to allow someone a do-over, with a penalty, if they wish they hadn't folded based on subsequent developments. Maybe people will discover others.
The game-breaking use of resurrection would be to allow someone to strategically bypass the core mechanic of putting their mana where their mouth is in earlier rounds. In chaos mode, the game can expect you to put in a significant amount of mana out there. Why put a few hundred mana on yourself each round when you could wait for the river and resurrect for 100 if circumstances warrant?
There's also a concern in chaos mode that resurrection at the end could snipe other players and/or not give them a fair chance to knock out the resurrected player if it occured close to market close.
I'd still like to keep it -- I think it's helpful to have a safety valve for inadvertent failures in a fast-moving game. But I think it needs some rails to prevent it from potentially replacing the core mechanic, e.g.:
Only one resurrection per player per hand (maybe per tournament in the future?).
Resurrection may be pricier than 100 mana if bidding has been hot (not sure how to come up with this number, but the idea is that it should cost you significantly more to resurrect than it would have to keep yourself in the normal way).
Resurrection is only available the round after folding OR perhaps it can be available two rounds later at a steep fee.
Resurrection is only partially successful -- you will only win 75% of your "normal" percentage, the remainder goes to the next player in line (if possible).
Resurrection must be publicly requested and paid at least twelve hours before round close. It will only be granted if Pat can resurrect you at least five hours before round close, so asking ASAP is strongly recommended.
@Stralor jotted down some notes, thinking I might make these changes:
- resurrection, 100 mana, immediate upon purchase and declaration at least 12 hours before end of game, only get half of resolution (other half spread out; so in 2 split resurrectee gets 25% other gets 75%, in 1st 50% while 2nd gets 50%, modified further by pairings, etc.), still counts for full tourney points
- late join, 75 mana + buy-in, immediate upon purchase and declaration at least 12 hours before end of game (though I might take a bit to respond and give the hand), 1x available
- (new) replace a card in hand, 50 mana, random new card, old card declared publicly, 3x available
- call-a-card only returns answer from spread and current hands at time of purchase (so may change if a late join/ card replace happens)
@Stralor hmm I'm not sure how "at least 12 hours before end of game" plays out with random close times. 12h before maximum close time? tough to balance "I missed a round of betting and need an opportunity window to resurrect" vs. "other players need a chance to respond to the resurrection"
@Stralor maybe I could add 12 hours to a round timer if a resurrection happens, but this might cut stuff close to me needing to get on a plane. this still seems like the right move, tbh. then a player wouldn't needd to worry about end time
@Stralor Also +12h could push end times into rather nasty hours for many players. Maybe you reserve the right, but not obligation, to reset the max close time to ~six hours (if currently below that) when a resurrection happens?
@Stralor "call-a-card only returns answer from spread and current hands at time of purchase"
Not sure I am understanding "spread". Seems to exclude possible late join hand. Is it only player hands? I.e. if card asked about happens to be unrevealed turn/river is it announced as in the game or not in current player hands or ...?
@Stralor "(new) replace a card in hand, 50 mana, random new card, old card declared publicly,"
Does the person paying for the cheat decide which card or is it decided at random?
@Stralor I would suggest deadline is set at 12 hours after river market claim creation. For it to be valid must have both paid the fee and publicly requested resurrection on join the game or latest game market by the deadline.
@ChristopherRandles spread is flop + turn + river; I'll only tell you "the card is (not) in the game", doesn't count any unclaimed cards incl late join
@ChristopherRandles person who does replace card chooses which to replace, but the replacement card is "drawn" from the deck (will be pre-drawn and given in order, like everything else)
@ChristopherRandles yeah, that's more or less what it was before I was brainstorming added time. even if +12 hours is a little dicey for some folks with schedules, it still feels somewhat more fair. but Jason is right, I'll keep chewing on it
@Stralor OOPS DIDN'T SEE THE THIRD PAGE OF BETS, THOUGHT IT WAS WEIRD JASON DIDN'T BET (since it's not his style and he's normally very engaged). REVISING REVISED
@ChristopherRandles no, but usually you can just add it yourself. I just tried, though, and got a weird API bug