Let's play a variation on poker! Like all the decent games of poker, this will be a lot about leveraging luck with strategy and mind games; a perfect match for a place about predictions imo.
We're playing a variation based on Texas Hold 'Em specially designed for working on Manifold over a series of markets, but everyone can participate and bet even if they don't buy a hand. See "How It Works" below for more info.
This is the central place for info for this hand. New questions will be posted here as we go.
This question resolves to the winner(s) equally at the end of the hand. Note that bets here don't determine the result of the game. Go to the current round's question for that.
Current Status
The River, heads up (with the possibility of resurrection). The minimum is 40.
6 of diamonds, 3 of hearts, 7 of diamonds, 6 of hearts, and 3 of clubs showing on the board.
The Audience
Eliminated in the Flop.
Queen of Hearts, 2 of Hearts
Cheats
In this hand players and audience members can pay to do "cheats".
Cheats can be bought by adding a subsidy in the current betting round and commenting what cheat you'd like or sending me a managram with the same info, and all cheats count towards earning an extra tournament point for the hand, which is earned at 100 mana spent towards the prize pool. I'll respond with the answer privately, if it involves cards. Managrams will be added to a prize pool given to the winner(s) at the end.
I will try to be timely in granting your cheat, but may take up to 12 hours to respond (so plan your cheats accordingly).
Menu ~
20 mana - see a card you haven't seen yet from a random player's current hand (not told which, can have been eliminated or unclaimed), up to 3 times
50 mana - call a specific card and ask me if it's in the game
50 mana - pair with another player, steal 25% of their resolution percent if they win, give them 25% of yours if you win. each player can be in one pair
100 mana - resurrect your hand after folding
100 mana - draw a replacement hand or join late, while supplies last. only 13 hands will be drawn (12 + the Audience), so you'll be grabbing one that wasn't claimed
How It Works
You can get a hand here before the game starts by paying the subsidy to add yourself to the list. Limited to the first 12 players (though I don't expect to have that many).
Players who get a hand are welcome to share it, or team up, bluff, obfuscate, and misdirect, whether on the questions, over discord, or wherever they see fit. They're also welcome to bet for or against their opponents!
After we fill up or a couple of days, I'll kick off the game with the first of the rapid (~1 day) questions for each of the four rounds of betting (Deal, Flop, Turn, River).
Each player must commit a certain amount of mana on YES on themselves each round to advance to the next stage, as indicated by the round's trading history, otherwise they fold. Their commitment is the net of YES mana spent on themselves minus NO mana spent on themselves. This minimum starts at 10 mana for the Deal.
If any player commits double or more than the minimum in any round, the minimum is doubled in all future rounds. i.e.: if the minimum mana to advance in a round is 20 and one or more people commit 40+, all future rounds have a minimum of 40, unless they get doubled further.
The Audience Hand works exactly like personal hands, except it:
is publicly visible
was bought in by me
advances by counting only YES bets on it, but needs double the minimum
The round questions resolve at the end of the game to the winner(s), equally.
If two or more players stick it out to the end I'll reveal their hands, announce the winner(s), and resolve all the remaining questions accordingly.
If for whatever reason every player folds at any stage, the win goes to the player who held the highest bet on themselves in the previous round.
This hand is part of a short tournament series. There are several ways to score points in the tournament (even if you don't get a hand).
As you might have noticed, the rules of this special variant allow for mismatched bets by players, so feel free to jump in even if you're intimidated by a whale in the water! They can do their thing, profit by playing market dynamics, and you can still come out on top :) Admins and Manifold staff also have no inherent advantage, so don't be shy!
As I'll know all of the cards, I won't be betting or playing in the rounds, and I cannot be bribed to reveal other players' information or tilt in your favor except with official cheats. My house cut is simply the trader bonuses on any questions I make for this, though I'll accept tips for my role as dealer if you're so inclined.
Of course, side markets are welcome. Feel free to add them to the Manifold Plays Poker group and comment them here for shared visibility, and they'll count for the tournament!
Side markets:
/Jason/manifold-plays-poker-hand-5-how-man
/Stralor/who-will-win-place-and-show-in-hand-38e051c645e7
/Stralor/will-the-audience-make-it-to-the-fl
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ474 | |
| 2 | Ṁ232 | |
| 3 | Ṁ168 | |
| 4 | Ṁ126 | |
| 5 | Ṁ28 |