This is an experimental attempt to measure the counterfactual. Instead of conditional N/As, conditional options, scaled (dice roll) zoom ins, or some such, this market has what I call "inverting" resolutions.

You're welcome to add more options, too!

Resolution

• If Trump wins, business as usual

  • everything TRUE resolves YES

  • everything FALSE resolves NO

• If Trump doesn't win, it's inverted

  • TRUE -> NO

  • FALSE -> YES

Nitpicks:

• Anything unknown when Trump wins/ doesn't win will be given a week for proof to surface, and otherwise will resolve as FALSE.

• If Trump drops out early for any reason, this resolves to the state of the world at that point via the "doesn't win" lens.

How to read this market

"If X happens, will Trump win the election?"

• If an option at high value happens he's more likely to win. That is to say it's "correlated" to his chances.

• And the reverse is also true. If an option at low value happens he's less likely to win. It's "anti-correlated."

• Moreover, you can infer the effects of options that don't happen.

The further away the value is from Trump's odds indicates a combination of how dramatic the effect would be + how likely it is to happen.

How to bet on this market

I'll get into the math, but the basic question is, "How might this affect his chances of winning?" If it improves it, the simple answer is to bet YES, if it hurts it, the simple answer is to bet NO.

The current math for optimal betting:

• T = Your odds that Trump wins, 0 to 100%

• E = Your odds that the option's "Event" happens, 0 to 100%

• R = How correlated you think they are, -100 to 100% (from severely hurts him to majorly helps him)

• (Treat all as decimal)

• Your target odds = (TE+(1-E)(1-T))(ER+1)

• Aren't sure how strong the effect would be? It's also totally valid to use a range of R! Try two values between -0.5 and 0.5, then make sure to bet the market so it stays in that box

For example, if your credence of a Trump win is 55% and China invading Taiwan is 10%, but you think it would only help or hurt him a little bit and aren't sure which way (±25% correlation), your range to keep the market between is 45-47%. If you think invasion means he's guaranteed to lose the election (-100% correlation), then your target at those odds is 41%.

But where this gets interesting is as the odds of such an event go up. If it's suddenly 90% likely and would tank his chances, your target becomes 5%!

For reference: