Currently, it's estimated that <5% of Russia's military is female, down from a high of around 10%. However, men between 18 and 27 already face general conscription. With an evident shortfall in military manpower (see: reliance on mercenaries, expansion of recruitment to foreigners and convicts, etc.), will Russia's invasion of Ukraine cause enough instability that requires including women into a draft or the routine conscription?
History and Current Status of Women in the Russian Military
Resolves YES if Russia institutes any compulsory military service as a rule on any population of female citizens before the end of the war in Ukraine.
Otherwise NO when the war ends.
If the war extends beyond Ukraine and is no longer considered the Ukraine-Russia war, but the continuity is clear, it still counts.
The close date on this market may be extended as needed.
1,000Or maybe you make a difference between mobilization (мобилизация, 30+ y.o. & ex-military, was ordered by a president) and conscription (призыв, 18-30 y.o., happens every year)?
Rules already say that female doctors / nurses, geodesists, etc. can be drafted and are kept track of in draft offices.
Is the media supposed to dig up lists of drafted women for this to resolve yes?
Are they actually getting drafted? Or are they only signed up to possibly be drafted? It would have to be an applied practice that actively puts women into the military, and not like orders by the government for specific named individuals. Your example of doctors/ nurses would qualify if some are actually being forced into military service.
(I'm super curious if this is the case! You're clearly much more knowledgeable on this topic than I am.)
Yeah, it's like selective service registration (it's hard to make an analogy when only one side of it has mandatory regular conscription). A small subset of women (with useful professions) and a propoption of men (with health issues) are supposed to serve in the army if mobilized. The rest of the men would have served 1-2 years, unless they got exempted for getting a PhD, siring a bunch of kids, or just evaded it till turning 30 (and also can be mobilized). This goes more in-depth.
Could you clarify what you consider „war ends“? Something like „cease fire hold for x weeks“ maybe?
@MaxPayne No, I'd need a formal end to the war. Treaty, declaration and withdrawal, dissolution of Russia, annexation of Ukraine without other nations still in the fight against Russia, or such. This could theoretically go on a long time if a DMZ-type situation occurs, but I don't expect it will.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?