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MANIFOLD
NFL Week 4 - Prop Bets
42
Ṁ5kṀ50k
resolved Oct 9
Resolved
YES
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Resolved
YES
Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes
Resolved
YES
Fake Punt
Resolved
YES
Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT
Resolved
YES
Any team scores 24+ points before halftime
Resolved
YES
Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses
Resolved
YES
Any team scores 40+ points
Resolved
YES
Pick Six
Resolved
YES
35% or higher Kick Return rate
Resolved
YES
A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)
Resolved
YES
Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)
Resolved
YES
Any 400 yard passer
Resolved
YES
At least one missed kicking extra point attempt
Resolved
YES
Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games
Resolved
YES
2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week
Resolved
YES
A 4th and 11+ is converted*
Resolved
YES
California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)
Resolved
YES
At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards
Resolved
YES
Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)
Resolved
YES
For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

2026-27 NFL Season - Week Four

*** Prop Clarifications

  • At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose

    • Favorite based on DraftKings closing line

  • Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

    • Based on closing DraftKings lines

  • A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

    • If consensus the next week is that the player will be out for the season

    • Will lean towards "YES" (i.e. if the vibe is the player is 75/25 I will resolve YES)

    • Based on my subjective opinion (but feel free to give input)

  • Fake Punt Attempt

    • If a team lines up in punt formation and then snaps the ball with the intention to gain the first down instead of punting

  • Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

    • The quarterback that started the game is removed due to neither an injury, nor due to a blowout

    • Subjective judgement will be used, but generally these fulfilling these three criteria will be required for 99% of cases

      • No Injury

      • If it is the 4th quarter then the game has to be within 16 points (2 possessions)

      • Its not clear that the QB removed from the game will start the next game

  • Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

    • Resolves NO if there are no Double Digit Underdogs

  • Fat Guy Touchdown

    • A player that would be considered fat scores a TD

    • All O-linemen, and DTs scoring would count (regardless of how)

      • Reserve the right for other positions if they are fat enough (if you want, ask me a player beforehand)

  • Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)

    • Resolves at 50% for ties, weighted (so if there are two games tied for the top already, and this week adds another, it would resolve at 33%)

  • A 4th and 11+ is converted

    • First downs as the result of penalties do not count

    • This logic applies similar to any other prop like this

      • "(no plays)" in the box score do not count as a play

  • Top 5 Super Bowl favorites

    • If there is a tie for 5th (or like 4-6th), this will resolve at 50%

  • Will a championship belt change teams?

    • There are unique 4 Championship Belts currently in play

      • (Markets to be made)

  • In general, lines that use betting lines or props will rely on the DraftKings odds

Add your own props! Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after this Week's game slate completes!

All Weeks:

  • Update 2026-10-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * For the Quarterback gets benched prop, a quarterback who is immediately removed after the first play of the game (such as for a trick play or opener strategy) does not count as benched.

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filled a Ṁ25 NO at 20% order

@StopPunting My audit of the completed Week 4 official kicking logs finds 12 missed kicks: 8 FGs (Boswell 1, Aubrey 2, Mevis 1, Loop 1, Lutz 1, Pineiro 1, Carlson 1) and 4 PATs (Sanders 1, Myers 1, Fitzgerald 2). So the prime-total answer looks NO. The largest combined game total is 2 (DAL–HOU, DEN–SF and DET–CAR), so the 3-misses-in-a-game answer also looks NO. I checked all 32 kickers and reconciled team totals for additional attempts. Useful checks: Tyler Loop 2026 Logs Stats | NFL.com ; Ryan Fitzgerald 2026 Logs Stats | NFL.com ; https://www.dallascowboys.com/team/players-roster/brandon-aubrey/logs/ . Monday’s final: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints 2026 REG 4 - Game Center | Official Site of the National Football League . Please review; I hold M25 NO on each.

bought Ṁ901 YES

@StopPunting resolves yes (titans converted 4th and 11 for 33 yds)

bought Ṁ20 YES

@StopPunting Does the Bears/Ben Johnson shenanigans on the first play of the game count for this? Case Keenum took the first snap and was thus the QB who started the game. He was then immediately benched for Bagent. I think it fits the letter of the law on your description but certainly doesnt fit the spirit.

bought Ṁ812 NO

@Zeolite yeah definitely not in the spirit

bought Ṁ908 YES

just executed by the Chiefs in 1st quarter of Chiefs vs Raiders