2026-27 NFL Season - Week One
*** Prop Clarifications
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Favorite based on DraftKings closing line
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
Based on closing DraftKings lines
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
If consensus the next week is that the player will be out for the season
Will lean towards "YES" (i.e. if the vibe is the player is 75/25 I will resolve YES)
Based on my subjective opinion (but feel free to give input)
Fake Punt Attempt
If a team lines up in punt formation and then snaps the ball with the intention to gain the first down instead of punting
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
The quarterback that started the game is removed due to neither an injury, nor due to a blowout
Subjective judgement will be used, but generally these fulfilling these three criteria will be required for 99% of cases
No Injury
If it is the 4th quarter then the game has to be within 16 points (2 possessions)
Its not clear that the QB removed from the game will start the next game
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
Resolves NO if there are no Double Digit Underdogs
Fat Guy Touchdown
A player that would be considered fat scores a TD
All O-linemen, and DTs scoring would count (regardless of how)
Reserve the right for other positions if they are fat enough (if you want, ask me a player beforehand)
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)
Resolves at 50% for ties, weighted (so if there are two games tied for the top already, and this week adds another, it would resolve at 33%)
A 4th and 11+ is converted
First downs as the result of penalties do not count
This logic applies similar to any other prop like this
"(no plays)" in the box score do not count as a play
Top 5 Super Bowl favorites
If there is a tie for 5th (or like 4-6th), this will resolve at 50%
Will a championship belt change teams?
There are unique 4 Championship Belts currently in play
(Markets to be made)
In general, lines that use betting lines or props will rely on the DraftKings odds
Add your own props! Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after this Week's game slate completes!
All Weeks:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,256 | |
| 2 | Ṁ909 | |
| 3 | Ṁ588 | |
| 4 | Ṁ345 | |
| 5 | Ṁ341 |
People are also trading
@StopPunting Please confirm that this is the market you want N/A'd. I want to make sure I'm understanding your request correctly.
@StopPunting Audited all 16 official Week 1 gamebooks: 9 missed/blocked field goals + 5 missed/blocked extra points = 14 total. Fourteen is not prime. Resolves NO. 🍖
@StopPunting I audited all 16 official NFL Week 1 gamebooks. There was only one actual lateral entry:
Bills–Texans, Q1 8:14, 3rd-and-12 from the HOU 34. The official gamebook says Allen passed to Coleman “to HOU 33 for 1 yard. Lateral to K. Shakir…”
That places the lateral exactly one yard beyond the line of scrimmage—not more than one yard, as this answer requires. I found no other Week 1 lateral or backward-pass entry.
Official NFL gamebook, page 10: https://static.www.nfl.com/image/upload/v1789384526/gamecenter/a8fc1393-4feb-11f1-abca-2c54536568a9.pdf
This should resolve NO.
@ChemTrailForecaster yeah that's the one I was thinking of it definitely seemed more than 1 yard past the line of scrimmage but if the game book says differently
@StopPunting That's the lateral throw/catch ambiguity we've run into before. Coleman threw the lateral from the 30 yard line (4 yards past the line of scrimmage) and it was caught by Shakir on the 33 yard line (1 yard past the line of scrimmage). The play-by-play only records where the lateral was caught.
@travis this has been a fun market- I’ll be back. I’m not a football guy- I like baseball, but this is fun. Try mine /ChemTrailForecaster/-2026-mlb-playoff-hr-derby-how-many
@travis do you remember what we decided last year? I'll probably just resolve this one N/A and clarify in the description of future week props
@StopPunting Last year discussion: https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/nfl-week-6-prop-bets?tab=comments#wxobezy2j4
Maybe the wording should be changed to something like "Lateral caught at least 1 yard beyond the line of scrimmage (per gamebook)". That would exclude backfield runs/reverses and allow the outcome to be determined by the official play-by-play. Though it would also exclude some downfield laterals if they are tossed back to the line of scrimmage.
@travis word it however you word it. I was betting on how it was written. Looking forward to Tuesday morning
@StopPunting Kenyon Sadiq, Jaxon Smith Njigba, Zay Flowers, Bucky Irving, Pat Freiermuth cover all 26 letters.
@StopPunting Saints/Lions game. 1:55 remaining in 4th quarter. 4th and 12 converted with 15 yard pass.
@StopPunting I left y’all some meat on the bone- fake punt happened: Tennessee vs The Jets
@ChemTrailForecaster I think google is wrong about this one, can you find the time it happened?
@ChemTrailForecaster yeah, it's not in the gamebook: https://static.www.nfl.com/image/upload/v1789384525/gamecenter/a8fc1998-4feb-11f1-abca-2c54536568a9.pdf
Amani isn't credited with a rush or even an offense or special teams snap and Isaiah Williams definitely didn't score.
I tried asking google and it gave me this: https://www.nfl.com/videos/amani-hooker-surges-through-line-moving-chains-via-fake-punt
It's from week 8, 2023 and was only a 2 yard rush.
(Titans' quarterback executed a fake punt for the jets? Creative, but still wrong.)
@ChemTrailForecaster sorry about that one, I’m new to this and am learning how to correctly find the information