Coaches listed with their current teams and year hired (just as information). Previous tenure with their team is not taken into consideration. This is just a measure of which coach will be the last remaining with their current team as of now (question published Pre-Week 10 of 2023 NFL Season).
There are currently 32 NFL head coaches, one for each of the 32 NFL teams. Someday, all but one of them will have been fired (or moved on from). This market is for which NFL coach will last the longest in the league with their current team. A coach who immediately signs with another team or is traded will be eliminated. If a team changes cities, the coach will not be eliminated. If a team folds, that coach will be eliminated. Newly formed teams/coaches will not be added.
Temporary leaves of absence (for a game or two, i.e. McVay has a baby)
will not count. Other, more complicated cases (i.e. Pagano having cancer) can be adjudicated in the spirit of the market (and will mostly likely not impact the outcome so will probably lean towards leniency).
If, somehow multiple coaches are still around with their same team through the end of the 2059 season, then this market will resolve with them as joint winners.
If the NFL folds (or inherently changes in an extreme way where all the coaches are removed/change at the same time), then all coaches at that conclusion will resolve as joint winners.
Other Coach Survival Markets:
1,000
3.00Are Belichick and Tomlin 1-2 still?
I like this format a lot but it is also very long range. Some question building:
For what range of starting years would this have resolved to (the current reign of) Belichick?
If Belichick leaves before Tomlin, for what range of starting years would the question resolve to Tomlin?
Now we are on to the important bit: in what past year is the crop interesting enough to retroactively start the same market. 2010? 2012? Maybe ~5 answers alive would be a spot people could bet more actively on and shorten the time-to-resolve by a decade or two?
So the wording might be a bit ambiguous, especially with the fact I put the year hired (I included that just as a matter of interest). I created this market as a super-long term market that started immediately and doesn't retroactively count years that coaches have been in the league.
I meant it to be "Which current NFL coach will be the last one to still be coaching with their team starting from now?" Were other traders also misled or confused about the intent? I'll clean up the wording to make it clear.
As for the more shorter term markets, I have some ideas:
"Will X coach survive longer than half of all the 32 coaches?" with each coach as a YES/NO. Any that are fired/leave resolve as no, until we hit 16, then the rest resolve as "YES". Given the churn of coaches that would be like a 5 yearish time horizon.
Which of the newly hired head coaches starting the 2024-25 season will last the longest? Or be independent and be like "will last 5 years"?
@StopPunting I fully understood the question! No worries. I was suggesting we might see more traders on an alternate version with a smaller pool of coaches and a somewhat shorter expected timeframe. "Which of these coaches from the 2012 (or whatever) season will be the last man standing"
@Eliza Oh yeah I definitely like that. The bigger pool definitely dilutes the value (like a coach expected to get fired getting fired and going from like 2% to 0.9%) isn't going to do much to increase your profit in the short term vs just putting your mana in other markets.
@JoshuaWilkes Unfortunately not otherwise I would. It's a dependent multiple choice market, so I can only resolve once. I could have made it independent, but that's not really the spirit of the market which is super long term (and with the loan system you can still gradually profit, ideally as more and more liquidity enter). Best I can do is edit the answers to strike them through haha. So free money for fired coaches (if you are ok with temporary loss of liquidity).
Yeah 1k getting 4% back remaining every night for 1.3% profit long term probably isn't good enough returns to not use the 1k elsewhere if you are a good trader. This was even an issue in the last FG kicker remaining market, I would dump my mana at night into the eliminated kickers at 1.3%. But then eventually find myself withdrawing a lot of it for better opportunities.
Frank Reich is our first loss! 1 Down, 30 to Go!