A time-sensitive copy of this market:

This market, however closes on 1/14/2024.

This is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias's at the relative same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.

Even though it closes on 1/14/2023, it will resolve when the linked market resolves.

Matt predicts 60% for this question

https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions

Matt's calibration for reference: