Manifold Scouts: NFL Quarterback Peak Success
6
2.5kṀ570
2100
80%
Joe Burrow
80%
Brock Purdy
80%
Jared Goff
80%
Jimmy Garoppolo
72%
Josh Allen
62%
Lamar Jackson
60%
Jayden Daniels
55%
Sam Darnold
55%
Bo Nix
55%
Caleb Williams
50%
C.J. Stroud
50%
Justin Herbert
50%
Jordan Love
50%
Drake Maye
50%
Cam Ward
50%
J.J. McCarthy
50%
Anthony Richardson
50%
Dak Prescott
50%
Kyler Murray
50%
Michael Penix Jr.

Resolves based on the peak season result for an NFL quarterback during their career. A players resolves either when they retire or win the super bowl. Resolution occurs as follows based on the team's peak performance:

  • 100% - Starts and Wins Super Bowl

  • 80% - Starts Super Bowl

  • 60% - Starts Conference Championship

  • 40% - Starts Divisional Round

  • 20% - Starts Wildcard Round

  • 0% - Never Make Playoffs

Each player in question must start the game to qualify (take the first offensive snap).

Tenure as of creation is taken into account (i.e. Joe Burrow will resolve at at least 80%, Josh Allen will resolve at at least 60%, Mason Rudolph will resolve at least 20% as of the end of the 2024/25 season).


Returning from retirement can count as it's own tenure, but won't change any past results.

If the NFL folds (or inherently changes in an extreme way where all the coaches are removed/change at the same time), then all quarterbacks will resolve at their previous peak.

This questions is everlasting, I will add new quarterbacks each draft cycle.

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