Will sodium-ion batteries be commercially available before the end of 2024?
resolved May 24

Resolves yes if at least one company mass produces sodium-ion batteries before the end of 2024 that are used in a commercial product, eg EV, home storage, or cell phone.

Resolves no if:

  • No company mass produces the cells OR

  • No company uses the cells in a commercially available product (eg. only available for spaceflight or research)

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predicted YES

Any updates @StoneGray ?

@MethodTarantula this really should be closed by now.

@MethodTarantula looks like the creator is inactive, so I'll try to help. I see the creator previously didn't feel some criteria was met and was researching, anything specific you can drop here related to his comment:

I think for lack of any production numbers I’d like some evidence that they’ve shipped anything to any customer (not partner) at all, which I’m not able to find.

just as an indication of where things stand? if the criteria are met I can resolve this.

@shankypanky Sodium-ion batteries are commercially available from Hina Battrey. JAC is a customer, JAC uses them in JAC Yiwei E10X, they exported 5000 units.


@shankypanky thanks for your help.

This company ships through third party sellers for industrial applications, and gives information on their website about where to purchase at this link: https://natron.energy/products/where-to-buy

Without contacting the third party seller pretending to be an interested buyer, I think this is as good as we are going to get.

A different type of sodium ion battery is also available on alibaba http://www.evpromax.com/product/1600705956759-906322325/sodium_ion_battery_12V_70_75_100_150_200_ah_4000_times_cycles_SIB_sodium_battery_module_sodium_ion_battery_pack.html

@shankypanky i see this was resolved. Thanks!

predicted YES
predicted YES

Possibly also relevant https://electrek.co/2023/12/27/volkswagen-backed-ev-maker-first-sodium-ion-battery-electric-car/

Deliveries of the new sodium battery-powered Yiwei electric vehicle are expected to begin next month.

Commercially available rack mounted sodium-ion UPS from Natron Energy via a third party seller: https://bridex.fujielectric.com/sodium-ion-battery-dry

Natron’s BlueTray 4000 in a standard 1U 19-inch rackmount configuration delivers 4kW at 48V DC over a 2-minute discharge with a 6kW peak power rating, recharges in 8-minutes, and can cycle >50,000 times. Based on Natron’s core Prussian Blue battery technology, the Bluetray is UL listed and available for purchase. For complete product specifications see our brochure and data sheet below:

Should this resolve as yes?

@MethodTarantula Target market is correct, so as long as it‘s available for purchase it would resolve yes. I’m struggling to find any customers.

It looks like Forced Physics-DCT and CE+T are the only companies that has a battery from them, but it was months before they announced commercial availability.

predicted YES

@StoneGray i'm not sure what you're implying in the second part of the message. Their main website also states its available for purchase: https://natron.energy/product/. Its unlikely we will find a price without negotiating with their sales department.

Customers likely ordered and paid for the first available units up front before they were available to others, but your original question did not stipulate customers, just whether it was mass produced and commercially available.

I think this confirms commercially available, but not sure how we define mass produced.

@MethodTarantula You’re right, I wasn’t clear. I think for lack of any production numbers I’d like some evidence that they’ve shipped anything to any customer (not partner) at all, which I’m not able to find. That kinda thing should be big news, and they’re not the first company to claim they can provide na-ion and never commercialize it.

I’ll reach out to Natron and clarify availability, resolving yes if they are currently manufacturing non-prototype units and have shipped to customers.

I’ll also resolve yes with any other evidence that indicates that they are actually mass producing them

I’m bullish on sodium batteries but one year to get to mass production seems wildly optimistic.

Also, neither a phone nor an EV is the target market. The target market is stationary storage: home batteries, utility batteries.