Sodium-ion batteries appear to be in the process of commercialization, with multiple companies claiming to mass-produce them today. Meanwhile academics claim to have mitigated all their downsides except the lower energy density, and the cost is expected to be lower than lithium-ion. Not requiring lithium or cobalt in manufacturing also mitigates some geopolitical risks due to the uneven distribution of these minerals.

"Market share" is defined as "% of new EVs sold globally powered by sodium-ion batteries". If multiple types of batteries are used, the EV counts as powered by sodium-ion if this battery type accounts for at least 50% of the total capacity.

I will not bet on this market.