
What will be the market share of sodium-ion batteries in EVs by 2030?
2
Ṁ355Ṁ352030
14%
0% to 5%
18%
5% to 15%
27%
15% to 25%
27%
25% to 50%
14%
Over 50%
Sodium-ion batteries appear to be in the process of commercialization, with multiple companies claiming to mass-produce them today. Meanwhile academics claim to have mitigated all their downsides except the lower energy density, and the cost is expected to be lower than lithium-ion. Not requiring lithium or cobalt in manufacturing also mitigates some geopolitical risks due to the uneven distribution of these minerals.
"Market share" is defined as "% of new EVs sold globally powered by sodium-ion batteries". If multiple types of batteries are used, the EV counts as powered by sodium-ion if this battery type accounts for at least 50% of the total capacity.
I will not bet on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?
20% chance
Sodium ion battery for $10/kWh by EOY 2026?
14% chance
Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 70 percent on June 30, 2026?
57% chance
What will be the global share of new cars sold that are electric by:
Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?
16% chance
What will be true about solid-state batteries in 2030?
EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?
71% chance
EV market share in US in 2030?
Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 35 percent on September 30, 2026?
57% chance
Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 70 percent on September 30, 2026?
52% chance