In 2023, will any paper be published on an AI that plays Diplomacy better than Cicero, on at least as big a sample?
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950Ṁ2512resolved Jan 10
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Cicero is an AI agent that scored 25.8% across 40 blitz games of Diplomacy. This question resolves YES if a paper is published in a reputable journal or by a reputable group, describing a new AI system that scores better than 25.8% in at least 40 games (blitz or full-length) against human opponents. If a different scoring method than "sum of squares" is used, I'll decide if the result seems subjectively better than Cicero. I won't bet in this market.
(edit 12/3: I mean full-press Diplomacy)
(edit 12/3: I mean literally in the year 2023)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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