In 2023, will any paper be published on an AI that plays Diplomacy better than Cicero, on at least as big a sample?

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resolved Jan 10

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Cicero is an AI agent that scored 25.8% across 40 blitz games of Diplomacy. This question resolves YES if a paper is published in a reputable journal or by a reputable group, describing a new AI system that scores better than 25.8% in at least 40 games (blitz or full-length) against human opponents. If a different scoring method than "sum of squares" is used, I'll decide if the result seems subjectively better than Cicero. I won't bet in this market.

(edit 12/3: I mean full-press Diplomacy)

(edit 12/3: I mean literally in the year 2023)

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Is anyone aware of a paper relevant to the resolution? I'm not, but I haven't looked very hard.

@StevenK I haven't found anything after some internet searches and will resolve NO in 7 days unless someone comes up with an example.

I'd be hoping to make a model that can just do diplomacy chat well and analysis to feed into a strategic system but I'd be surprised if anything in the world comes out before the end of the year as it is a very complicated game for AI and niche.

One of the last bastions though imo

Given the degree of hand-crafting involved in making it, I suspect the answer is no, unless another group comes along and very quickly finds a more efficient and less human-labor-intensive method of solving the problems equally well. Which seems, ceterus paribus, fairly unlikely.

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