At the time of market creation, NASA was rehearsing procedures to reconfigure a Dragon capsule attached to the International Space Station to provide an emergency return option for the stranded astronauts, and then undock the Starliner to make room for the incoming crew.
This market will resolve to YES if NASA both commands the Starliner capsule to return to Earth and an unintended event occurs which would have made the return unsurvivable for a human.
The market will resolve to N/A if the Starliner is intentionally destroyed or boosted to a graveyard orbit without another catastrophic failure having occurred first. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
The resolution date, which is most likely to be on September 6, will be when the capsule is on the ground, has been destroyed, or a permanent loss of control has occurred.
1,000
3.00So I’m only the second largest Yes holder, but for me it was mostly that the people over at GJOpen (the more or less Superforecasters®) are weirdly pessimistic, even most of the usually accurate forecasters: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3689-will-the-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-in-orbit-as-of-29-august-2024-attempt-a-re-entry-and-landing-on-earth-before-19-october-2024
@lxgr Do they have a FTS system on capsule? If whole journey was meant to be crewed then it seems unlikely. It also has robust heat shielding and given propellant quantities maybe vent propellants for passification might be a more likely thing in software if prepared* for uncrewed return?
(* Adequately prepared? They had ~ a month to re add uncrewed functionality?)