Unbacked assets tend to obtain value as they become widely used, regardless of whether they were intended to have value by design. This outcome is very challenging to prevent.

Several cryptocurrencies have unintentionally attained value without being designed to do so. In the early 2010s, an operating version of the bitcoin testnet was deliberately destroyed and "reset" because users had started to trade development coins for real money, and the value of testnet coins had made the testnet unusuable for real development.

This market will resolve to YES if Manifold's mana currency attains value by establishing a Mana/USD exchange rate before the end of 2024. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

The current value of an asset is typically defined as the price of the highest buy order for that asset on an exchange.

For this market, the specific exchange rate, as long as it is higher than zero, is irrelevant. As with national currencies in some countries, any "official" exchange rate that Manifold declares will be ignored. The following will establish a real exchange rate for mana, but the outcome is not limited to these examples:

• Listing on a trading exchange, such as an exchange purposely developed for trading mana, a cryptocurrency exchange like Kraken, or some other site

• An ERC-20 token is deployed that "wraps" mana

• At least three private transactions involving mana occur during 2024 that exchange mana for items of real value worth $2.00 or more each

The method by which mana is transferred in these transactions is irrelevant. The establishment of value may begin to happen despite attempts by Manifold to prevent it and still resolve as YES. The transactions may be conducted without the site's authorization in ways it cannot legally prevent, such as full account sales on secondhand gaming markets.

The introduction of Manifold accounts into darknet market sales similar to those for stolen checks, when a set value is established by richer accounts selling for more money, would also resolve to YES.