Unbacked assets tend to obtain value as they become widely used, regardless of whether they were intended to have value by design. This outcome is very challenging to prevent.
Several cryptocurrencies have unintentionally attained value without being designed to do so. In the early 2010s, an operating version of the bitcoin testnet was deliberately destroyed and "reset" because users had started to trade development coins for real money, and the value of testnet coins had made the testnet unusuable for real development.
This market will resolve to YES if Manifold's mana currency attains value by establishing a Mana/USD exchange rate before the end of 2024. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
The current value of an asset is typically defined as the price of the highest buy order for that asset on an exchange.
For this market, the specific exchange rate, as long as it is higher than zero, is irrelevant. As with national currencies in some countries, any "official" exchange rate that Manifold declares will be ignored. The following will establish a real exchange rate for mana, but the outcome is not limited to these examples:
Listing on a trading exchange, such as an exchange purposely developed for trading mana, a cryptocurrency exchange like Kraken, or some other site
An ERC-20 token is deployed that "wraps" mana
At least three private transactions involving mana occur during 2024 that exchange mana for items of real value worth $2.00 or more each
The method by which mana is transferred in these transactions is irrelevant. The establishment of value may begin to happen despite attempts by Manifold to prevent it and still resolve as YES. The transactions may be conducted without the site's authorization in ways it cannot legally prevent, such as full account sales on secondhand gaming markets.
The introduction of Manifold accounts into darknet market sales similar to those for stolen checks, when a set value is established by richer accounts selling for more money, would also resolve to YES.
Related questions
@Sailfish These are excellent markets; however, no transaction has actually occurred yet, as the creator admits he is too poor to conduct one for 100000M.
@SteveSokolowski My point is only that we are very likely going to be 1/3 of the way there very soon, and that this market would have resolved "YES" in all previous years of Manifold's existence.
@JoshuaWilkes Also, items were sold for mana at Manifest. I'm sure people already do this privately. Don't see any universe where this resolves No.
@JoshuaWilkes If so, that's interesting. Then, there might be an "open secret" established where nobody is supposed to talk about it, but everyone knows that mana has a value and trades based on it.
@SteveSokolowski For me Mana's value is tied to charitable donations, for what it's worth my current exchange rate is around $0.25 to Ṁ100. I'm pretty sure if there was an actual market Mana would trade much lower though, I'm almost certain it's liquidity constrained. Do whales value their accounts at ~5-10k USD? Seems unlikely to me but it's possible.
@SteveSokolowski Besides the official night market at Manifest, some folks organized trades between mana and USD amongst themselves. Someone I know sold his mana for 80c/100 mana. This is definitely above market rate, tho. Market is probably more like ~20c.
@aenews OK, but just to clarify, there has to be direct or circumstantial evidence that transactions occurred after the market start date, and it needs to include specifics. Hearsay would not be sufficient. The evidence needs to establish answers to the following questions:
Who was involved in the transaction, what was exchanged, and what was the rate?
Anonymous or secondhand reports that transactions occurred would not be sufficient, while "I made this specific transaction" would.
@SteveSokolowski this is my point:
If someone acquires a large YES position and then provides evidence that they made three sales of mana for 2USD each in order to force this market to resolve YES, are you satisfied with that?
@JoshuaWilkes Yes - if they are three independent sales to different people, sure. It wouldn't be logical to claim that selling mana to the same person in three separate "sales" would set an exchange rate.