On the day after the CBS News 2024 Vice Presidential debate is held, the date of which has yet to be finalized, a survey of the top articles linked from the homepage of CNN.com will be surveyed. A winner of the debate will be selected by the following criteria, in descending order, stopping at the first one that renders a clear decision:
Headlines that clearly and unequivocally state that Vance or the Democratic candidate won the debate
The most common opinion expressed by all articles posted the day after the debate
The first opinion expressed in the most prominent article
If JD Vance is the consensus winner, the market will resolve to YES. If the Democratic nominee is the consensus winner, the market will resolve to NO. If the debate is cancelled, the market will resolve to N/A.
The market will not resolve to N/A in the event of a "tie." In the case of a close call, I will ask for comments, and consult with Claude 3.5 Sonnet for its opinion, but I will solely render the final decision.
RELATED MARKETS:
1,000
3.00This one was difficult. There were no headlines stating that anyone won. The consensus among the articles seemed to be that while Walz had better command of the facts, he lost the debate because Vance achieved his objectives. Vance intended to rehabilitate his image by being more personable according to the articles.
Therefore, we'll have to go with (barely) YES.