Will JD Vance win the 2024 Vice Presidential debate, according to Manifold users?
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65
Ṁ11k
resolved Oct 3
Resolved
YES

On the day after the CBS News 2024 Vice Presidential debate is held, the date of which has yet to be finalized, a poll will be conducted of Manifold users asking who won the debate. The poll will remain open for 24 hours, and this market's close date will be changed to be equal to the poll's close date.

The answers will be:

  • JD Vance

  • The Democratic Vice Presidential nominee's name

  • Tie

  • No opinion, just see results

If the number of respondents answering "JD Vance" is greater than the number of respondents answering the name of the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, this market will resolve to YES. If the debate is not held, the market will resolve to N/A. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

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The final result of the poll was Vance, who had 25, compared to Walz, who had 16.

Do I assume correctly that this resolves to NO if the number of respondents answering "JD Vance" is equal to (rather than greater than) the number of respondents answering "Tim Walz"?

@4fa Yes. The exact wording of the text is "greater than," not "greater than or equal to."

@SteveSokolowski you may wanna extend this

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