Will a disaster occur related to the "drones" before end of 2024?
39
1kṀ13k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

The US government's official stance on the spreading drones is that "there is no evidence they pose a threat." So, are they telling the truth, or, is the statement carefully worded to only be true about the drones themselves?

This market will resolve to YES if one hundred or more people are killed in an incident related to the "drones." Such disasters may include:

  • The drones themselves deploy weapons and kill people

  • The drones are searching for something bad that causes casualties

  • The drones are from an adversary who declares war or they cause retaliation

  • The drones create panic and riots

Otherwise, if time expires, it will resolve to NO.

  • Update 2024-15-12 (PST): - A disaster will count as YES if it involves casualties from people interfering with aircraft they believe to be drones (e.g. shooting at them, pointing lasers at them), even if the aircraft were not actually drones (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2024-16-12 (PST): Casualties includes both deaths and injuries, but must occur in one distinct single incident to qualify for YES resolution. (AI summary of creator comment)

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