65
577
2.3K
resolved Dec 8
100%93%
Donald Trump
0.1%
Chris Christie
0.3%
Ron DeSantis
6%
Nikki Haley
0.1%
Vivek Ramaswamy
0.0%
Tim Scott

A GOP Presidential debate will be held on December 6, 2023. This market resolves to the winner of the debate, according to CNN.com.

The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be used as reference. "Live updates" about the debate are excluded.

If the article covers "5 winners and 5 losers" or something similar, then the candidate must be listed first (or last, if the order is counting down) in the list of winners. As long as (s)he is referred to as the sole or the most prominent winner, the reason is irrelevant, even if all (s)he did was meet expectations and even if (s)he didn't attend.

The order of precedence is as follows. If multiple of these things is present, any instance of a lower number trumps a higher number, even if there are more instances of a higher number.

  1. Headlines that outright state that a candidate won the debate

  2. Articles that declare candidates "winners," using that word or a similar word; the person declaring the winner is not relevant

  3. "Grade the candidates" articles

Polls are not relevant to this market.

The November 8, 2023 resolution for this market generated controversy because it was close, and you should not bet if you are concerned about close calls. Exactly one candidate will be chosen, and the market will not resolve N/A if it is a close call.

The winner will be selected solely from the list of candidates in the market; a most prominent mention about some other candidate will be ignored and the next more prominent mention considered in that case.

If CNN does not post any articles about the debate on December 7, 2023, if the debate is so uncivilized that no article provides an opinion as to who won or lost, or if the debate is cancelled, then all options resolve to N/A.

NOTE: By these criteria, Nikki Haley was the winner of the August 23, 2023 debate, Donald Trump was the winner of the September 27, 2023 debate, and Ron DeSantis was the winner of the November 8, 2023 debate.

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RESOLUTION: There were no additional articles published since the comment below was posted to change the situation. TRUMP appears to be the consensus of most articles on the site, and he is also the most prominent mention in the article that uses the word "winner." The resolution is TRUMP.

Currently, this market will resolve to TRUMP unless additional articles are posted before the close date. This debate, so far, may be one of the easiest to resolve.

The CNN homepage features an opinion article fourth from the top, "Guess who won the Republican debate." The market text states that word "winner" in the headline supersedes all other mentions. Furthermore, that article is listed first (another criteria in the market text), above the one with the voter panel, so the "Guess who won" is the article in question.

The first paragraph in the article's text clearly implies that TRUMP won the debate.

Images of the headline and article are posted below.

There are also additional articles posted that support that the fair resolution is TRUMP. Although they would not be counted by the market text, they reiterate the central theme at CNN that TRUMP won the debate because he was in the lead and the others attacked each other instead of him.

The market will remain open until the close time in the case that additional articles are posted that contradict this finding, as stated in the market text.

@SteveSokolowski I don't have a horse in this race currently (was contemplating a No on Haley last night), but disagree with your interpretation of the opinion article, unless I'm misunderstanding your criteria. https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/07/opinions/fourth-republican-debate-analysis/index.html

There were 12 opinion contributors, who I'd categorize as saying these people or concepts won:

  • Errol Louis: Trump

  • Geoff Duncan: Haley

  • Kate Bedingfield: Biden

  • Sophia A. Nelson: Haley

  • Jill Filipovic: Haley

  • Patrick T. Brown: DeSantis

  • Roxanne Jones: Trump

  • Jeff Yang: China hawks

  • Carrie Sheffield: Biden

  • Susanne Ramirez de Arellano: Trump

  • W. James Antle III: Christie

  • Lanhee J. Chen: Biden

So shouldn't this resolve to 50/50 Trump/Haley?

@MarkHamill Not in this case. Remember, the market text states that the first mention is more important. Even in this case of a 50/50 split, the tie would be broken by Louis's opinion that TRUMP won, because his opinion was published first.

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