Who will win the December 6, 2023 Republican Presidential debate?
65
2.3kแน€12k
resolved Dec 8
100%93%
Donald Trump
0.1%
Chris Christie
0.3%
Ron DeSantis
6%
Nikki Haley
0.1%
Vivek Ramaswamy
0.0%
Tim Scott

A GOP Presidential debate will be held on December 6, 2023. This market resolves to the winner of the debate, according to CNN.com.

The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be used as reference. "Live updates" about the debate are excluded.

If the article covers "5 winners and 5 losers" or something similar, then the candidate must be listed first (or last, if the order is counting down) in the list of winners. As long as (s)he is referred to as the sole or the most prominent winner, the reason is irrelevant, even if all (s)he did was meet expectations and even if (s)he didn't attend.

The order of precedence is as follows. If multiple of these things is present, any instance of a lower number trumps a higher number, even if there are more instances of a higher number.

  1. Headlines that outright state that a candidate won the debate

  2. Articles that declare candidates "winners," using that word or a similar word; the person declaring the winner is not relevant

  3. "Grade the candidates" articles

Polls are not relevant to this market.

The November 8, 2023 resolution for this market generated controversy because it was close, and you should not bet if you are concerned about close calls. Exactly one candidate will be chosen, and the market will not resolve N/A if it is a close call.

The winner will be selected solely from the list of candidates in the market; a most prominent mention about some other candidate will be ignored and the next more prominent mention considered in that case.

If CNN does not post any articles about the debate on December 7, 2023, if the debate is so uncivilized that no article provides an opinion as to who won or lost, or if the debate is cancelled, then all options resolve to N/A.

NOTE: By these criteria, Nikki Haley was the winner of the August 23, 2023 debate, Donald Trump was the winner of the September 27, 2023 debate, and Ron DeSantis was the winner of the November 8, 2023 debate.

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