Will Ron DeSantis win the November 30, 2023 debate against Gavin Newsom?
resolved Dec 3

A debate between Ron DeSantis and Gavin Newsom will be held on November 30, 2023. This market resolves to the winner of the debate, according to CNN.com.

The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be used as reference. "Live updates" about the debate are excluded.

The order of precedence is as follows. If multiple of these things is present, any instance of a lower number trumps a higher number, even if there are more instances of a higher number.

  1. Headlines that outright state that a candidate won the debate

  2. Articles that declare a candidate "winner," using that word or a similar word; the person declaring the winner is not relevant

  3. "Grade the candidates" articles

Polls are not relevant to this market.

The November 8, 2023 Republican debate market generated controversy because it was close, and you should not bet if you are concerned about close calls. Exactly one candidate will be chosen, and the market will not resolve N/A if it is a close call.

If Ron DeSantis wins the debate, the market will resolve to YES. If CNN does not post any articles about the debate on December 1, 2023, if the debate is so uncivilized that no article provides an opinion as to who won or lost, or if the debate is cancelled, then the market will resolve to N/A. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.


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RESOLUTION: This debate seemed to get little attention from CNN, or from any other media outlet for that matter. I wasn't able to find any articles that had a headline praising or criticizing DeSantis or Newsom, used the term "winner," or ranked the candidates by performance.

Because the market criteria state that in the absence of anya rticles the market will resolve to N/A, the resolution is N/A.

So far, there are no articles that meet the qualifying criteria. The market is now a wait to run out the clock, and if nothing is posted today, it will resolve N/A.

The close date is midnight tonight, but I will be going to sleep at 7:00pm for an event and won't be available tomorrow. The resolution will be set on Sunday.

predicted NO

@SteveSokolowski I mean, what you write here is fair, but I think the market has spoken, and that the winner of the debate is the one who doesn't carry around a feces map.

predicted NO

@KevinBlaw I could say the same about Newsom’s wife calling off the overtime round, and him complaining afterwards that the debate format was unfair. Winners tend not to do that. I’m in favor of resolving the market based on the written criteria (which are much clearer than most on this site).

predicted NO

@MarkHamill Feces. Map.

Leader. Of. The. Free. World.

predicted NO

Hard to pick a winner. The moderator was terrible. The questions were terrible.

predicted YES

@KevinBlaw They were talking past each other the whole time too. I personally think Desantis had better arguments because Newsom kept on repeating himself

predicted NO

@cc6 I knew the debate was going to be pointless when they were giving 30 seconds for answers. Just dumb. Whole thing was dumb. I would almost rather watch whoever that guy Destiny is debate someone. Almost.

predicted NO

Hmm. Both CNN and Politico have posted their recaps and neither mention a winner. I wonder if this might be it for coverage. What a dud of a debate.

predicted NO

CNN says the debate was pointless, but not necessarily uncivilized. Timestamp is 12/1. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/30/politics/desantis-newsom-debate-fox-hannity/index.html

predicted NO

There is a decent chance Rob drops out tonight, saying he ran at the wrong time, but this debate is about the future. Something like that. The best chance he has for saving face and making people forget about his disastrous campaign.

All before Gavin squishes him like a bug on live tv.

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