What will be the "October Surprise" of the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Basic
36
Ṁ4437
Nov 29
35%
Other
11%
Joe Biden ceases to be President
7%
United States military actively involved in combat in Israel-Iran war
7%
All-out war declared between Israel and Iran
5%
None
5%
Video that is widely rumored to be, or is, a deepfake
4%
Accusations of an abusive workplace environment (NOT a sexual harassment accusation)
3%
Israel invades Lebanon
3%
Major military conflict begins
2%
Video surfaces of inappropriate candidate remarks from before October
2%
Sex scandal or sexual harassment accusations
2%
Coup or regime change in a geopolitically significant country
1.9%
Criminal act by candidate
1.4%
Terrorist attack on US soil
1.4%
Economic decline or stock market crash
1.4%
Death of Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate
1.4%
Leak of E-Mails or other documents
1.1%
Natural disaster
1%
Criminal act or rumored criminal act by family member of candidate
1%
Saudi-Israel normalization

In US Presidential elections, a phenomenon known as an October Surprise often occurs. An October Surprise is a last-minute dramatic event that changes the dynamics of the race.

Some past examples include:

  • The revelation of George W. Bush's 1976 DUI on November 2, 2000

  • The Osama bin Laden video of October 29, 2004

  • The Trump "Access Hollywood" tape on October 7, 2016

Some, but not all, October Surprises have changed the results of the election.

This market will resolve to the most important event where the first public knowledge of the event's occurrance was revealed in October or November, and the event happened before the election, and the event had significant media coverage that dwarfed all other issues and events at the time.

The single answer will be what the mainstream media consensus is on Thanksgiving 2024. If there is media coverage of two events of equal importance such that a decision is difficult, the one that provided a benefit to the winner of the election will be selected. In the unlikely event there is no major news that media outlets judge as decisively having impacted the election that broke in October or November, the market will resolve to "None."

Please add your own responses.

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Accusations of an abusive workplace environment (NOT a sexual harassment accusation)

I'm thinking back to the primary, with those allegations of a terrible workplace environment some time shortly before she dropped out, and how they kinda just disappeared because she dropped out.

Joe Biden ceases to be President

If the Israeli-Hamas war ends in October, does this resolve YES?

It would have to be an actual peace treaty, with a permanent cessation of hostilities seen clearly in retrospect, not the likely case of a pause in shelling.

Can this resolve the multiple options? How would this have resolved for the 2020 Presidential Election?

Does a major new virus coming from China count?

@EliGaultney Go ahead and add it. Actually, I just did, along with a few others to start. I expect this to get to hundreds of entries, like the TIME markets.