In US Presidential elections, a phenomenon known as an October Surprise often occurs. An October Surprise is a last-minute dramatic event that changes the dynamics of the race.
Some past examples include:
The revelation of George W. Bush's 1976 DUI on November 2, 2000
The Osama bin Laden video of October 29, 2004
The Trump "Access Hollywood" tape on October 7, 2016
Some, but not all, October Surprises have changed the results of the election.
This market will resolve to the most important event where the first public knowledge of the event's occurrance was revealed in October or November, and the event happened before the election, and the event had significant media coverage that dwarfed all other issues and events at the time.
The single answer will be what the mainstream media consensus is on Thanksgiving 2024. If there is media coverage of two events of equal importance such that a decision is difficult, the one that provided a benefit to the winner of the election will be selected. In the unlikely event there is no major news that media outlets judge as decisively having impacted the election that broke in October or November, the market will resolve to "None."
Please add your own responses.
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@EliGaultney Go ahead and add it. Actually, I just did, along with a few others to start. I expect this to get to hundreds of entries, like the TIME markets.