
Has a hard AI takeoff begun?
0
Ṁ1kresolved Feb 4
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For this question, a "hard takeoff" means that humans have already turned the corner into exponential advances in computer science that will lead to weak superintelligence - which may not be able to directly influence the physical world - before the end of the year.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?
9% chance
AI takeoff will be slower than the midpoint of the “soft” versus “hard” AI takeoff debates as they were in 2021
75% chance
Do you think there's going to be a hard takeoff?
POLL
Hard AGI takeoff will occur
22% chance
Will fast take-off happen this year?
3% chance
When will a fast take-off scenario occur?
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
34% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
51% chance
When will the AI bubble crash?
6/7/27
Will fast takeoff (less than 72 hours from AGI to ASI) occur (before 2050)?
17% chance