Will fast takeoff (less than 72 hours from AGI to ASI) occur (before 2050)?
33
3.6k
2050
40%
chance

Even though the definition of AGI is controversial, the definition of ASI is even more so. For the purposes of this market, the definition of ASI will be one of the following three, with preference for the first listed:

  • An indisputable "ASI reached" scenario, where the AI regarded as ASI is so advanced and beyond human cognitive capabilities that common sense can't call it anything other than ASI.

  • A Manifold official market about ASI, similar to the "When AGI?" market. I expect that Manifold will create such a market at some point.

  • In the absence of any of these cases, I will try to find the best strict test similar to the Longbets test in quality but for ASI and set it up as this market's definition of ASI. Due to this, I won't bet in this market.

"Fast takeoff scenario" here means "in 72 hours or less."

Note for YES bettors: In a post-AGI world, something like Manifold may cease to exist or lose value, even more so in a post-ASI world that may result in something we can't even comprehend, let alone predict. If you bet YES and are correct, this market, Manifold, Mana, Prize Points, or whatever may not have any value or may stop existing. We don't know what will happen at that point. So don't bet YES expecting to gain any benefits; bet for the fun of it, for the play-money, for market prediction, for what Manifold is supposed to represent, that spirit.

Resolves YES:

  • After the first AGI is developed (that triggers Manifold's "AGI When?" market resolution), if within 72 hours of the AGI's first inference/use at full capabilities/first-time use, a loop of self-improvements happens resulting in the creation of the ASI with or without human help.

  • Using the AGI at limited capabilities in compute or other restrictive means doesn't count as first-time use.

Resolves NO:

  • If the year is 2050 and the YES criteria are not met.

  • If the "first-time use" of the AGI at its full potential doesn't cause a loop of self-improvements, or the improvements are not enough to achieve an ASI threshold in 72h.

  • If there is no AGI in 2050.

OP Trading: Given the subjective nature of this market’s resolution (as I will choose the ASI definition if neither is obvious nor Manifold creates a market about it), I won't bet on this market.

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Feels like people are misreading this one.
61% likely that the very first AGI will foom in 3 days or less? gotta be kidding me

bought Ṁ100 NO

@JoeandSeth I think people may have read the title as "ASI before 2050" and not as "Will fast takeoff (less than 72 hours from AGI to ASI) occur (before 2050)?"

IMO even "Will fast takeoff occur?" would be a better title (because people don't always read the description thoroughly).

I've been told we're not supposed to do N/A anymore,but this question would be much better if it could just N/A if AGI doesn't occur before 2050.

@LoganZoellner agree with your interpretation

Great rate on No though - I think even Yud would balk at a 72hr foom at 40%. Just comes down to how long you'd want to wait for your payout. Manifold saying this'll resolve somewhere 2029-2032