AI takeoff will be slower than the midpoint of the “soft” versus “hard” AI takeoff debates as they were in 2021 | Manifold

AI takeoff will be slower than the midpoint of the “soft” versus “hard” AI takeoff debates as they were in 2021

7

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2300

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chance

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ALL

One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.

Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)

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Hard AGI takeoff will occur

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Related questions

Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?

By what percentage will using AI slowdown/speedup developers in the second METR study?

Will there be an AI Winter between 2022 and 2026?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Will risk from misaligned AI be popularly perceived to be greater at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Will there be a curve shift in general AI capabilities by the end of 2028?

Hard AGI takeoff will occur

If the progress of AI experiences a slowdown before 2030, what might be the cause?

Do you think there's going to be a hard takeoff?

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