Will there be food supply shortages in multiple states of the USA? | Manifold

Will there be food supply shortages in multiple states of the USA?

9

100Ṁ158

Dec 31

39%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This will be determined by balancing the news from one side against the denial of this by the other political biased news. Yes, if it is similar to the toilet paper shortage during Covid, only regarding food. Yes, if the prices double. Yes, if the public panics for a few days, even if there is no actual long term shortage. Yes, if this panic is reported in the news. Yes, if the trucks stop shipping the normal quantity of food for a few weeks. Yes, if according to an unbiased news source. Yes, if the farmers are also unable to produce what is needed.

Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The time period of interest for the described food supply shortages to occur is up to the market's closing date at the end of December 2025.

Update 2025-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the market condition 'Yes, if the prices double':
- This will be evaluated using inflation adjusted prices.

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Hmm. What if there is inflation but incomes rise to match doubled prices?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Great question! We have been assuming inflation will be below 6%. Instead let's use inflation adjusted prices.

time period of interest?

@KJW_01294 This question closes at the end of Dec 2025.

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